Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO) Stock Overview
Operates as a franchisee of McDonald’s restaurants. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 6/6 |
| Future Growth | 0/6 |
| Past Performance | 5/6 |
| Financial Health | 3/6 |
| Dividends | 2/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
ARCO Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 19 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$8.75 |
| 52 Week High | US$9.75 |
| 52 Week Low | US$6.51 |
| Beta | 0.48 |
| 1 Month Change | -7.51% |
| 3 Month Change | -2.13% |
| 1 Year Change | 18.89% |
| 3 Year Change | -1.57% |
| 5 Year Change | 37.17% |
| Change since IPO | -57.58% |
Recent News & Updates
Seeking Alpha • May 22
Arcos Dorados Comparable Results Are Way Lower Than On The Surface
Summary Arcos Dorados reported strong 1Q26 headline results, but underlying fundamentals remain pressured by local inflation and currency effects. ARCO's apparent revenue and EBITDA growth are largely driven by currency appreciation and inflation, not genuine business improvement. Adjusted EBITDA was boosted by non-recurring gains, while comparable sales likely declined on an inflation-adjusted basis in key regions. I maintain a hold rating on ARCO, as its 12x+ P/E reflects currency-overvalued earnings amid cyclical and competitive challenges. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 01
ARCO: Fair View Will Hinge On 2026 Dividends And Execution Risks
Analysts have raised their average price target on Arcos Dorados to $9.00 from $7.80, citing updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E following recent research updates from major banks. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Arcos Dorados shows a mix of upgrades and price target increases, alongside more cautious views that focus on execution and valuation risks.Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • May 22
Arcos Dorados Comparable Results Are Way Lower Than On The Surface
Summary Arcos Dorados reported strong 1Q26 headline results, but underlying fundamentals remain pressured by local inflation and currency effects. ARCO's apparent revenue and EBITDA growth are largely driven by currency appreciation and inflation, not genuine business improvement. Adjusted EBITDA was boosted by non-recurring gains, while comparable sales likely declined on an inflation-adjusted basis in key regions. I maintain a hold rating on ARCO, as its 12x+ P/E reflects currency-overvalued earnings amid cyclical and competitive challenges. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • May 01
ARCO: Fair View Will Hinge On 2026 Dividends And Execution Risks
Analysts have raised their average price target on Arcos Dorados to $9.00 from $7.80, citing updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E following recent research updates from major banks. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Arcos Dorados shows a mix of upgrades and price target increases, alongside more cautious views that focus on execution and valuation risks.
Narrative Update • Apr 14
ARCO: Dividend And New Restaurant Openings Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have raised their consolidated price target for Arcos Dorados Holdings to $12.00, citing updated views on revenue growth, profit margins and P/E assumptions following a series of mixed recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates around Arcos Dorados Holdings point to a more constructive tone from several bullish analysts, especially those lifting price targets in light of revised assumptions for revenue, margins and P/E.
Narrative Update • Mar 31
ARCO: Future Upside Will Rely On Executing 2026 Restaurant And Dividend Plans
Analysts have nudged their price target on Arcos Dorados to $9.91, a change supported by updated views on its discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and forward P/E assumptions, as well as mixed recent research highlighting cautious reactions to results alongside a modest $0.30 target move from one major firm. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Arcos Dorados highlights a mix of cautious and more constructive views, with attention on how the latest results and updated assumptions affect the stock’s risk and reward profile.Narrative Update • Mar 17
ARCO: Future Upside Will Hinge On Executing 2026 Restaurant Expansion Plans
Analysts nudged their price target on Arcos Dorados Holdings up by $0.30, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E, which they say support a slightly higher valuation framework. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the higher price target as consistent with updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E, which together point to a more supportive valuation framework.Narrative Update • Mar 03
ARCO: Future Upside Will Rely On Execution Of 2026 Expansion Plan
Analysts have increased their average price target for Arcos Dorados by $0.30, citing updated assumptions on fair value, discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E that support a slightly higher valuation framework. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the US$0.30 price target increase as a sign that updated fair value work still supports upside based on the current assumptions used in their models.Narrative Update • Feb 17
ARCO: Currency Tailwinds And New Restaurant Openings Will Support Upside
Analysts have adjusted their view on Arcos Dorados Holdings, trimming the fair value estimate from $13.42 to $12.00. This revision still reflects recent Street research, including a modest $0.30 increase in the price target cited by JPMorgan, as they update assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and the discount rate.Narrative Update • Feb 03
ARCO: Fair Stance Will Hinge On Brazil Momentum And 2026 Expansion
Analysts have slightly reduced their 12-month price target on Arcos Dorados to US$8.70 from US$8.80, citing ongoing momentum that they view as still lagging in Brazil. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has kept the tone measured for Arcos Dorados, with the latest move being a small trim in the 12 month price target to US$8.70.Analysis Article • Jan 25
Little Excitement Around Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s (NYSE:ARCO) Earnings
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s ( NYSE:ARCO ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 6.7x might make it look like a strong...Narrative Update • Jan 19
ARCO: Fair Stance Expects Brazil Momentum To Shape Near Term Returns
Analysts have trimmed their average price target for Arcos Dorados by about $0.10 to around $8.70, citing more cautious views on near term momentum, particularly in Brazil. However, core model assumptions such as fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E remain largely unchanged.Analysis Article • Jan 06
Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. One common...Narrative Update • Jan 05
ARCO: Neutral Stance Will Rely On Brazil Momentum And Margins
Analysts have slightly lowered their price targets on Arcos Dorados, with recent adjustments from US$8.80 to US$8.70 and to US$8.50, reflecting views that momentum in Brazil is still lagging. This development informs our updated narrative on the stock.Analysis Article • Dec 20
Calculating The Fair Value Of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (NYSE:ARCO)
Key Insights Arcos Dorados Holdings' estimated fair value is US$6.83 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current...Narrative Update • Dec 16
ARCO: Neutral Outlook Will Hinge On Brazil Momentum And Margin Execution
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Arcos Dorados Holdings to about $7.80 from $8.50, reflecting slightly weaker expectations for revenue growth and profit margins, even as they acknowledge a modestly lower discount rate and somewhat higher future valuation multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more cautious stance on Arcos Dorados, with multiple bearish analysts moderating their expectations for the stock.Narrative Update • Dec 02
ARCO: Future Upside Will Depend On Momentum Recovery In Brazil
Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Arcos Dorados Holdings by $0.10, citing ongoing momentum concerns, particularly in Brazil. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst commentary on Arcos Dorados Holdings reflects a balanced view of the company's valuation and operational trends, with particular focus on its performance in the Brazilian market.Analysis Article • Dec 01
Does Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that...Narrative Update • Nov 18
ARCO: Future Earnings Outlook Will Improve If Brazil Momentum Recovers
The analyst price target for Arcos Dorados Holdings has been reduced from $10.40 to $9.51. Analysts cite moderated growth expectations and ongoing market challenges as reasons for the adjustment.Analysis Article • Oct 15
Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.06
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. ( NYSE:ARCO ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.06 per share on the 26th of...Analysis Article • Sep 28
Arcos Dorados Holdings' (NYSE:ARCO) Dividend Will Be $0.06
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. ( NYSE:ARCO ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.06 per share on the 26th of...Analysis Article • Sep 19
Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO) Is Looking To Continue Growing Its Returns On Capital
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Analysis Article • Aug 14
Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO) Has Affirmed Its Dividend Of $0.06
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. ( NYSE:ARCO ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.06 per share on the 26th of...Analysis Article • Jul 13
Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.06
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s ( NYSE:ARCO ) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.06 per share on 26th of...Analysis Article • Jun 29
Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.06
The board of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. ( NYSE:ARCO ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.06 per share on...Analysis Article • Apr 08
Arcos Dorados Holdings' (NYSE:ARCO) Dividend Will Be $0.06
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. ( NYSE:ARCO ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.06 per share on the 27th of...Analysis Article • Apr 04
Take Care Before Diving Into The Deep End On Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (NYSE:ARCO)
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s ( NYSE:ARCO ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.3x might make it look like a buy...Seeking Alpha • Mar 18
Arcos Dorados Provided Little Data On Its Franchise Agreement, The Name Is Not Attractive
Summary Arcos Dorados' 4Q24 revenue declined due to FX headwinds, but comparable sales rose 1.7x inflation, indicating healthy demand despite macroeconomic challenges. Margins remain weak despite revenue growth, with EBITDA margin expanding only 40bps, highlighting high reinvestment needs and rising costs. The new Master Franchise Agreement with McDonald's lacks transparency, with key details on marketing and CAPEX requirements still undisclosed. Excessive CAPEX over D&A raises concerns about earnings quality; with an adjusted earnings yield of ~5%, I maintain a Hold rating on ARCO. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Mar 15
Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.06
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s ( NYSE:ARCO ) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.06 per share on 27th of March...Analysis Article • Feb 26
Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (NYSE:ARCO)?
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. ( NYSE:ARCO ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a double-digit share price...Analysis Article • Feb 03
Is Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Seeking Alpha • Jan 03
Arcos Dorados: MFA Renewal, Argentinian Recovery To Drive Earnings (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Arcos Dorados renewed its franchise agreement with McDonald’s, likely to reduce paid royalty fees slightly from 2025 forward. Earnings have remained turbulent due to economic uncertainty in Argentina and Venezuela, but the concerns should subside with better GDP growth expected in 2025. As the stock has continued to fall, I now estimate Arcos Dorados' stock to be valued attractively with 48% upside to a fair value of around $11.1. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Dec 11
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (NYSE:ARCO) Shares Could Be 30% Above Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Arcos Dorados Holdings fair value estimate is US$6.15 Arcos...Seeking Alpha • Dec 03
Arcos Dorados Costs Are Delevering, Not A Great Sign, Maintain Hold
Summary Arcos Dorados' 3Q24 earnings show revenue growth in local currencies but flat in USD, with Argentina facing significant challenges due to deep recession and high inflation. The new master agreement with McDonald's has not been explained in detail, particularly regarding CAPEX requirements, raising concerns about future profitability and operational margins. Arcos FY24E earnings yield of 10% could seem interesting, considering the company is also growing. However, plans for aggressive expansion in 2025, increasing CAPEX and D&A could significantly impact operating margins and net income, leading to a lower forward yield. Given the uncertainties and potential margin pressures, I maintain a Hold rating on Arcos Dorados, awaiting more clarity on the new agreement and CAPEX details. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Nov 25
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s (NYSE:ARCO) Low P/E
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 20x, you may...Analysis Article • Oct 28
Does Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's...Analysis Article • Sep 28
Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO) Is Doing The Right Things To Multiply Its Share Price
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Firstly, we'd...Seeking Alpha • Sep 20
Arcos Dorados: Hold Until New Franchise Agreement With MCD Materializes
Summary Arcos Dorados' 2Q24 results show strong topline growth but flat operating income, with challenges in Argentina and increased delivery costs impacting margins. The company is negotiating a 20-year franchise agreement with McDonald's, which could significantly affect future profitability and capital allocation policies. Concerns about high CAPEX, rising depreciation, and potential changes in the Master Franchise Agreement led me to downgrade Arcos to a Hold rating. Current valuation appears attractive, but uncertainties around future margins and the new franchise agreement warrant a cautious approach until more details are revealed. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Sep 13
Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (NYSE:ARCO)?
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. ( NYSE:ARCO ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw significant share price movement...
New Narrative • Sep 12
Dorados' Digital Transformation Fuels Growth And Expands Market Leadership In Latin America
Arcos Dorados' strategic move towards digitalization and implementing a loyalty program is expected to enhance customer engagement and sales, improving revenue and earnings.Analysis Article • Aug 31
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s (NYSE:ARCO) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 24% Below Its Share Price
Key Insights Arcos Dorados Holdings' estimated fair value is US$6.71 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Arcos...Seeking Alpha • Aug 07
Arcos Dorados Trades At Value Price Despite Growth, The Stock Is A Buy
Summary Arcos Dorados is a McDonald's franchisee in most Latin American countries. Since the pandemic, the company has grown by 20% to 30% while reinvesting margins in price competitiveness. The company's incentives are different from McDonald's, but the latter exercises a lot of control via shareholding and franchise agreements. This leads to Arcos overinvesting in growth. Although this leads to low returns on capital, Arcos is still growing profitably at 20% levels, but trades at a 9% earnings yield. Growth is significantly tied to Latin American economic activity, posing the largest risk for the company, but this is more than compensated by the yields embedded in the stock price. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jul 16
Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.06
The board of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. ( NYSE:ARCO ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 27th of...Seeking Alpha • Jul 06
Arcos Dorados: Wonderful Business, Selling For A Discount (Upgrade)
Summary Arcos Dorados Holdings is the largest QSR operator in Latin America and contributes 4% of McDonald's systemwide sales. Arcos shares have been punished alongside McDonald's, as McDonald's systemwide sales slow. However, Arcos sales are still showing strong momentum. The sum-of-the-parts model points to $12/share in equity value. Raising recommendation to a buy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jun 03
Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...Shareholder Returns
| ARCO | US Hospitality | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 7.6% | 0.1% | 1.0% |
| 1Y | 18.9% | -4.3% | 28.7% |
Return vs Industry: ARCO exceeded the US Hospitality industry which returned -3.5% over the past year.
Return vs Market: ARCO underperformed the US Market which returned 27.1% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| ARCO volatility | |
|---|---|
| ARCO Average Weekly Movement | 6.2% |
| Hospitality Industry Average Movement | 7.6% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.4% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: ARCO has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: ARCO's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | n/a | Luis Raganato | www.arcosdorados.com |
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald’s restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own, operate, and grant franchises of McDonald’s restaurants in 21 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Argentina, Aruba, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Curacao, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Croix and St. Thomas, and Venezuela.
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| ARCO fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$1.93b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$234.33m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$4.82b |
7.9x
P/E Ratio0.4x
P/S RatioIs ARCO overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| ARCO income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$4.82b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$4.23b |
| Gross Profit | US$588.03m |
| Other Expenses | US$353.71m |
| Earnings | US$234.33m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 1.11 |
| Gross Margin | 12.21% |
| Net Profit Margin | 4.86% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 128.6% |
How did ARCO perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
3.2%
Current Dividend Yield25%
Payout RatioDoes ARCO pay a reliable dividends?
See ARCO dividend history and benchmarks| Arcos Dorados Holdings dividend dates | |
|---|---|
| Ex Dividend Date | Jun 22 2026 |
| Dividend Pay Date | Jun 26 2026 |
| Days until Ex dividend | 29 days |
| Days until Dividend pay date | 33 days |
Does ARCO pay a reliable dividends?
See ARCO dividend history and benchmarksCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/22 18:09 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/22 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. is covered by 20 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Antonio Hernandez Velez Leija | Barclays |
| Robert Ford Aguilar | BofA Global Research |
| Pedro Pinto | Bradesco S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários |