Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Stock Overview
Operates and licenses restaurants in the United States and Canada. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 1/6 |
| Future Growth | 2/6 |
| Past Performance | 3/6 |
| Financial Health | 2/6 |
| Dividends | 4/6 |
CAKE Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 108 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Top Community Narratives
US$73.83
FV
4.4% overvalued intrinsic discount14.51%
Revenue growth p.a.
4.6k
users have viewed this narrative13users have liked this narrative
1users have commented on this narrative
33users have followed this narrative
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$77.05 |
| 52 Week High | US$78.87 |
| 52 Week Low | US$43.07 |
| Beta | 1.04 |
| 1 Month Change | 26.02% |
| 3 Month Change | 36.81% |
| 1 Year Change | 29.08% |
| 3 Year Change | 128.97% |
| 5 Year Change | 46.90% |
| Change since IPO | 2,047.15% |
Recent News & Updates
Analysis Article • Jun 19
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Stock Could Be 19.8% Overvalued After Flat Same Store Sales
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) is back in focus after recent quarterly results that paired solid headline figures with flat same store sales, raising questions about demand trends, revenue growth expectations, and the company’s higher net debt burden. See our latest analysis for Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory’s recent quarterly results have arrived alongside a sharp shift in sentiment, with the stock’s 30 day share price return of 28.0% and year to date gain of 46.2% pointing to...Seeking Alpha • Jun 08
Cheesecake Factory: Valuation Asymmetry Now Tilts To The Downside
Summary Cheesecake Factory now trades at 14.7–16.6x EBITDA, a 40% premium to peers despite traffic headwinds and limited upside catalysts. Same-store sales growth is increasingly reliant on price hikes, with traffic down ~1.4% and negative mix offsetting average check gains. Flower Child remains a portfolio star with strong AUVs, but faces slowing growth and rising competition in the upmarket bowl segment. I downgrade CAKE to 'Sell' as risk/reward deteriorates, expecting shares to revert to the high-$50s/low-$60s range near term. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jun 03
CAKE: Elevated P/E Leaves Little Cushion For 2026 Execution Missteps
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Cheesecake Factory slightly higher, from $51.81 to $52.46. The change reflects updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E following a series of price target increases and one reduction across recent research reports.Recent updates
Analysis Article • Jun 19
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Stock Could Be 19.8% Overvalued After Flat Same Store Sales
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) is back in focus after recent quarterly results that paired solid headline figures with flat same store sales, raising questions about demand trends, revenue growth expectations, and the company’s higher net debt burden. See our latest analysis for Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory’s recent quarterly results have arrived alongside a sharp shift in sentiment, with the stock’s 30 day share price return of 28.0% and year to date gain of 46.2% pointing to...Seeking Alpha • Jun 08
Cheesecake Factory: Valuation Asymmetry Now Tilts To The Downside
Summary Cheesecake Factory now trades at 14.7–16.6x EBITDA, a 40% premium to peers despite traffic headwinds and limited upside catalysts. Same-store sales growth is increasingly reliant on price hikes, with traffic down ~1.4% and negative mix offsetting average check gains. Flower Child remains a portfolio star with strong AUVs, but faces slowing growth and rising competition in the upmarket bowl segment. I downgrade CAKE to 'Sell' as risk/reward deteriorates, expecting shares to revert to the high-$50s/low-$60s range near term. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jun 03
CAKE: Elevated P/E Leaves Little Cushion For 2026 Execution Missteps
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Cheesecake Factory slightly higher, from $51.81 to $52.46. The change reflects updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E following a series of price target increases and one reduction across recent research reports.Analysis Article • May 11
We Like The Quality Of Cheesecake Factory's (NASDAQ:CAKE) Earnings
Despite posting healthy earnings, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated's ( NASDAQ:CAKE ) stock has been quite weak...Narrative Update • May 10
CAKE: Elevated P/E And 2026 Execution Risks Will Constrain Returns
Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for Cheesecake Factory stock by about $1.81 to $51.81, as recent price target revisions cite updated models following Q4 results, ongoing 2026 outlook assumptions, and adjustments to P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent research has centered on how Cheesecake Factory's valuation lines up with its updated 2026 outlook and the mixed tone around the latest Q4 results.Analysis Article • May 07
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ:CAKE) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated ( NASDAQ:CAKE ) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its...Narrative Update • Apr 23
CAKE: Elevated P/E And Mixed Q4 Delivery Will Constrain Forward Returns
Analysts have lifted Cheesecake Factory's average price target by several dollars to a range of roughly $58 to $75, as they refresh models after mixed Q4 results and an updated 2026 outlook. They still see a fair value of $50 based on current assumptions for revenue growth, margins and future P/E.
Narrative Update • Apr 07
CAKE: Higher P/E Assumptions Will Support 2026 Outlook Execution
The analyst fair value estimate for Cheesecake Factory has increased from $60.61 to $64.44. This change reflects a series of higher price targets on the stock as analysts update their models following mixed Q4 results and an intact 2026 outlook.Narrative Update • Mar 24
CAKE: Elevated P/E And Mixed Q4 Execution Will Limit Forward Upside
Analyst price targets for Cheesecake Factory have moved higher into the $58 to $75 range, as analysts update models following mixed Q4 results while largely maintaining 2026 outlook assumptions and pointing to what they see as balanced risk/reward at current P/E levels. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show a wide spread in views on Cheesecake Factory, even as headline price targets move higher.Narrative Update • Mar 09
CAKE: Elevated P/E Premium And Sector Headwinds Will Constrain Forward Upside Potential
Analysts have lifted their aggregate price targets on Cheesecake Factory by several dollars into the $58 to $75 range, citing refreshed models after mixed Q4 results, an intact 2026 outlook, and what some see as conservative long term assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research paints a mixed picture for Cheesecake Factory, with several firms lifting price targets after updating models for the latest Q4 report and 2026 outlook.Narrative Update • Feb 23
CAKE: Elevated P E And Sector Headwinds Are Expected To Limit Upside
Narrative Update: Cheesecake Factory Analysts have raised their average price targets for Cheesecake Factory by several dollars into a broad $58 to $75 range, citing updated post-Q4 models, a largely intact 2026 outlook, and a higher assumed P/E multiple, even as views on risk and reward remain mixed across firms. Analyst Commentary Across recent research, analysts are broadly lifting their price targets for Cheesecake Factory into a higher band, but their views on the stock are far from unanimous.Narrative Update • Feb 08
CAKE: Higher P/E Assumptions Will Balance Margin Pressure And Sector Headwinds
Analysts have nudged their price targets for Cheesecake Factory higher, reflecting slightly richer P/E assumptions and a modest lift in fair value to about $60.61, even as they acknowledge mixed sector views and ongoing earnings constraints in recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Cheesecake Factory points to a split view, with some analysts lifting price targets on higher valuation multiples while others stay cautious on the operating backdrop for casual dining.Narrative Update • Jan 25
CAKE: Softer Sales Trends And Sector Headwinds Are Expected To Pressure Returns
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Cheesecake Factory to $50, a $1 adjustment that reflects slightly updated views on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and the appropriate future P/E multiple in light of recent mixed price target changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Cheesecake Factory has been mixed, with several firms adjusting price targets and, in at least one case, downgrading the stock.Narrative Update • Jan 11
CAKE: Softer Same Store Sales And Sector Pressure Will Constrain Near Term Outlook
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for The Cheesecake Factory higher to $49.00 from $48.00. This reflects updated price targets that balance recent cuts and raises across the Street and factor in modest tweaks to revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions.Narrative Update • Dec 26
CAKE: Softer Same Store Sales Trends Will Shape Near Term Outlook
Cheesecake Factory's analyst-derived fair value has been trimmed from about $50.41 to $48.00, as analysts factor in softer same-store sales trends, modest demand slowdowns into next year, and a slightly weaker growth and margin outlook, despite the brand's still solid positioning in a choppier macro environment. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts continue to recalibrate their expectations for Cheesecake Factory, cutting price targets across the board as they reassess near term growth and margin assumptions.Narrative Update • Dec 12
CAKE: Margin Discipline Will Support Earnings Stability Amid Choppy Demand
Analysts have nudged their blended price target for Cheesecake Factory modestly lower, trimming expectations by a few dollars per share to reflect softer same store sales trends, choppier demand into Q3, and a slightly more cautious view on the restaurant sector backdrop. Analyst Commentary Street research reflects a more nuanced stance on Cheesecake Factory, with both optimistic and cautious voices acknowledging a tougher near term operating backdrop while debating the durability of demand and margin resilience.Narrative Update • Nov 28
CAKE: Margin Resilience Will Support Recovery Despite Sales Headwinds Ahead
Cheesecake Factory's average analyst price target has declined slightly. Recent reductions have been attributed to softer sales trends and persistent industry demand headwinds.Narrative Update • Nov 14
CAKE: Sustained Margin Improvement Is Expected To Support Long-Term Upside
The consensus analyst price target for Cheesecake Factory has been lowered by approximately $0.56. Analysts cite recent weaker same-store sales trends and persistent demand headwinds as key drivers of the adjustment.Narrative Update • Oct 30
CAKE: Share Repurchase Program And Brand Resilience Will Drive Positive Momentum
The consensus analyst price target for Cheesecake Factory has decreased by just over $5 to around $60. Analysts cite softer sales trends and persistent macroeconomic challenges impacting growth expectations.Analysis Article • Oct 30
Results: The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
There's been a notable change in appetite for The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated ( NASDAQ:CAKE ) shares in the week...Narrative Update • Oct 16
Flower Child And North Italia Concepts Will Expand Market Appeal
The consensus analyst price target for Cheesecake Factory has been reduced from approximately $73 to $68 as analysts cite a challenging industry backdrop and updated company outlooks, particularly with an anticipated mixed and volatile earnings season ahead. Analyst Commentary Recent research from major firms reflects both optimism and caution regarding Cheesecake Factory's performance in the upcoming quarter.Analysis Article • Sep 24
Weekly Picks: ⛏️ The Gold Play With Permits, A Plan And Real Momentum And 2 More Picks
This week’s picks cover: Why most people don’t understand The Cheesecake Factory’s potential, how fully permitted gold miner, 1911 Gold, could offer 50x return, why rate cuts benefit dividend plays like Coca Cola immensely.Analysis Article • Sep 09
Is Now The Time To Look At Buying The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ:CAKE)?
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated ( NASDAQ:CAKE ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw significant share price...Analysis Article • Aug 04
Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.27
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated ( NASDAQ:CAKE ) will pay a dividend of $0.27 on the 26th of August. This means the...
New Narrative • Aug 02
Cheesecake Factory offers an enticing opportunity for long-term growth by leveraging new concepts
The Cheesecake Factory is a stock that I believe most people do not understand it's actual potential; or really what makes this stock so attractive for long term growth. Here is a brief description of the company according to Benzinga: "Cheesecake Factory Inc owns and operates restaurants in the United States and Canada under brands that include The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and a collection within the Fox Restaurants Concepts subsidiary.Analysis Article • Aug 01
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Just Recorded A 8.4% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
Last week, you might have seen that The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated ( NASDAQ:CAKE ) released its quarterly result...Analysis Article • Jul 02
Cheesecake Factory's (NASDAQ:CAKE) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...Analysis Article • Jun 18
Some Shareholders Feeling Restless Over The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated's (NASDAQ:CAKE) P/E Ratio
There wouldn't be many who think The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated's ( NASDAQ:CAKE ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E...Analysis Article • May 25
Is Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE) A Risky Investment?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...Analysis Article • May 12
Cheesecake Factory's (NASDAQ:CAKE) Earnings May Just Be The Starting Point
Even though The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated's ( NASDAQ:CAKE ) recent earnings release was robust, the market didn't...Analysis Article • Apr 15
Should You Investigate The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ:CAKE) At US$46.99?
While The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated ( NASDAQ:CAKE ) might not have the largest market cap around , it received a...Seeking Alpha • Mar 28
The Cheesecake Factory: Downgrade To Sell As The Macro Environment Is Too Challenging
Summary I am downgrading The Cheesecake Factory from hold to sell due to worsening macro conditions and poor consumer sentiment affecting discretionary spending. CAKE's traffic growth has been negative for seven consecutive quarters, and price increases are no longer a viable strategy for SSS growth. Limited unit growth and high G&A expenses further constrain CAKE's ability to drive revenue and margin expansion in FY25. Valuation at 13x forward P/E is too high given the headwinds, with the potential for multiple re-rating if revenue or margins decline. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Mar 21
Estimating The Fair Value Of The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ:CAKE)
Key Insights Cheesecake Factory's estimated fair value is US$46.97 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current...Analysis Article • Mar 09
Market Participants Recognise The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated's (NASDAQ:CAKE) Earnings
With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 18x in the United States, you could be forgiven for...Analysis Article • Feb 25
Cheesecake Factory's (NASDAQ:CAKE) Dividend Will Be $0.27
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated's ( NASDAQ:CAKE ) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.27 per share on 18th...Seeking Alpha • Feb 20
The Cheesecake Factory: A Winning Restaurant Stock
Summary We continue to rate The Cheesecake Factory a hold, highlighting its strong revenue growth, margin improvements, and positive comparable sales trends. The company's strategic cost management and easing inflation have led to improved margins, with food and labor expenses showing notable reductions. CAKE's earnings growth is robust, with Q4 adjusted EPS rising significantly year-over-year, and the stock remains attractively valued at less than 15X forward earnings. With manageable debt, ongoing share repurchases, and expected dividend increases, we see long-term upside, projecting EPS of $3.70-3.85 for 2025. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 10
Returns At Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE) Appear To Be Weighed Down
What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Firstly...Seeking Alpha • Feb 03
The Cheesecake Factory: Maintaining My Buy Rating
Summary The Cheesecake Factory has outperformed the market with over a 50% return since April 2024, driven by strong fundamentals and positive earnings momentum. Despite the current fair valuation, CAKE's consistent revenue, margin improvements, and strong consumer base suggest potential for further appreciation. Risks include historical underperformance prior to this past year, inconsistent quarterly fundamentals, and potential economic downturns, but CAKE's strong consumer base and earnings resilience offer optimism. Fair value for CAKE is estimated between $42-$59 per share, with a 2% dividend yield, making it a long-term cautious buy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| CAKE | US Hospitality | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 5.2% | -1.4% | -2.3% |
| 1Y | 29.1% | -5.7% | 21.2% |
Return vs Industry: CAKE exceeded the US Hospitality industry which returned -4.1% over the past year.
Return vs Market: CAKE exceeded the US Market which returned 23.3% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| CAKE volatility | |
|---|---|
| CAKE Average Weekly Movement | 5.2% |
| Hospitality Industry Average Movement | 7.6% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.7% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: CAKE has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: CAKE's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1972 | 48,400 | David Overton | www.thecheesecakefactory.com |
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates and licenses restaurants in the United States and Canada. It operates bakeries that produce cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors. The company operates restaurants under the brands comprising The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and Fox Restaurant Concepts.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Fundamentals Summary
| CAKE fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$3.82b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$165.03m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$3.80b |
23.2x
P/E Ratio1.0x
P/S RatioIs CAKE overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| CAKE income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$3.80b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$2.26b |
| Gross Profit | US$1.54b |
| Other Expenses | US$1.38b |
| Earnings | US$165.03m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 3.32 |
| Gross Margin | 40.50% |
| Net Profit Margin | 4.34% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 137.4% |
How did CAKE perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
1.6%
Current Dividend Yield31%
Payout RatioCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/23 13:45 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/23 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/30 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is covered by 39 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| John Staszak | Argus Research Company |
| David Tarantino | Baird |
| Jeffrey Bernstein | Barclays |