The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

NasdaqGS:CAKE Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.4b

Cheesecake Factory Valuation

Is CAKE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CAKE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CAKE ($47.37) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($66.01)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CAKE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CAKE?

Key metric: As CAKE is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CAKE. This is calculated by dividing CAKE's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CAKE's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.8x
EarningsUS$128.31m
Market CapUS$2.45b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CAKE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CAKE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average28.7x
WEN Wendy's
17.1x7.5%US$3.4b
DNUT Krispy Kreme
57.7x-3.5%US$1.7b
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
29.8x26.6%US$1.3b
ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings
10.4x15.0%US$1.5b
CAKE Cheesecake Factory
18.8x15.8%US$2.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CAKE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.8x) compared to the peer average (28.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CAKE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
No more companies available in this PE range
CAKE 18.8xIndustry Avg. 22.9xNo. of Companies17PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CAKE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.8x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (23.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CAKE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CAKE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.8x
Fair PE Ratio20.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CAKE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CAKE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$47.37
US$49.41
+4.3%
15.0%US$59.00US$36.00n/a17
Dec ’25US$50.64
US$47.56
-6.1%
13.5%US$59.00US$36.00n/a16
Nov ’25US$45.82
US$46.25
+0.9%
11.5%US$55.00US$36.00n/a16
Oct ’25US$40.97
US$40.69
-0.7%
13.4%US$50.00US$29.00n/a16
Sep ’25US$39.31
US$40.56
+3.2%
13.6%US$50.00US$29.00n/a16
Aug ’25US$36.85
US$40.69
+10.4%
13.5%US$50.00US$29.00n/a16
Jul ’25US$38.50
US$39.19
+1.8%
14.4%US$50.00US$29.00n/a16
Jun ’25US$38.48
US$39.19
+1.8%
14.4%US$50.00US$29.00n/a16
May ’25US$33.82
US$36.07
+6.6%
11.3%US$44.00US$28.00n/a15
Apr ’25US$36.60
US$35.71
-2.4%
9.8%US$40.00US$28.00n/a14
Mar ’25US$35.41
US$35.64
+0.7%
10.0%US$40.00US$28.00n/a14
Feb ’25US$35.74
US$34.73
-2.8%
10.2%US$40.00US$28.00n/a15
Jan ’25US$35.01
US$33.67
-3.8%
12.9%US$40.00US$26.00n/a15
Dec ’24US$32.89
US$32.60
-0.9%
10.7%US$40.00US$26.00US$50.6415
Nov ’24US$30.86
US$33.87
+9.7%
13.3%US$43.00US$28.00US$45.8215
Oct ’24US$30.30
US$36.23
+19.6%
11.0%US$43.00US$31.00US$40.9713
Sep ’24US$31.85
US$36.73
+15.3%
10.4%US$43.00US$31.00US$39.3113
Aug ’24US$36.00
US$36.15
+0.4%
12.8%US$47.00US$30.00US$36.8513
Jul ’24US$34.58
US$36.08
+4.3%
13.3%US$47.00US$30.00US$38.5012
Jun ’24US$31.49
US$36.36
+15.5%
13.5%US$47.00US$30.00US$38.4811
May ’24US$33.38
US$37.36
+11.9%
14.3%US$46.00US$30.00US$33.8211
Apr ’24US$35.05
US$38.50
+9.8%
12.8%US$46.00US$30.00US$36.6010
Mar ’24US$38.18
US$37.75
-1.1%
13.5%US$46.00US$30.00US$35.4112
Feb ’24US$38.64
US$35.00
-9.4%
11.0%US$40.00US$28.00US$35.7412
Jan ’24US$31.71
US$34.50
+8.8%
12.1%US$40.00US$26.00US$35.0114
Dec ’23US$34.65
US$34.93
+0.8%
11.4%US$40.00US$26.00US$32.8915

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 01:41
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/10/01
Annual Earnings2024/01/02

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is covered by 50 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John StaszakArgus Research Company
David TarantinoBaird
Jeffrey BernsteinBarclays