The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

NasdaqGS:CAKE Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.4b

Cheesecake Factory Valuation

Is CAKE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CAKE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CAKE ($46.63) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($65.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CAKE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CAKE?

Key metric: As CAKE is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CAKE. This is calculated by dividing CAKE's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CAKE's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.5x
EarningsUS$128.31m
Market CapUS$2.38b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CAKE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CAKE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average28.3x
DNUT Krispy Kreme
65.8x-3.5%US$1.8b
WEN Wendy's
18.8x7.5%US$3.7b
ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings
12.3x15.4%US$1.8b
PZZA Papa John's International
16.3x10.0%US$1.5b
CAKE Cheesecake Factory
18.5x16.0%US$2.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CAKE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the peer average (28.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CAKE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GDHG Golden Heaven Group Holdings
3.5xn/aUS$6.01m
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
No more companies available in this PE range
CAKE 18.5xIndustry Avg. 24.4xNo. of Companies15PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CAKE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (24.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CAKE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CAKE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.5x
Fair PE Ratio20.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CAKE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CAKE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$46.63
US$47.56
+2.0%
13.5%US$59.00US$36.00n/a16
Nov ’25US$45.82
US$46.25
+0.9%
11.5%US$55.00US$36.00n/a16
Oct ’25US$40.97
US$40.69
-0.7%
13.4%US$50.00US$29.00n/a16
Sep ’25US$39.31
US$40.56
+3.2%
13.6%US$50.00US$29.00n/a16
Aug ’25US$36.85
US$40.69
+10.4%
13.5%US$50.00US$29.00n/a16
Jul ’25US$38.50
US$39.19
+1.8%
14.4%US$50.00US$29.00n/a16
Jun ’25US$38.48
US$39.19
+1.8%
14.4%US$50.00US$29.00n/a16
May ’25US$33.82
US$36.07
+6.6%
11.3%US$44.00US$28.00n/a15
Apr ’25US$36.60
US$35.71
-2.4%
9.8%US$40.00US$28.00n/a14
Mar ’25US$35.41
US$35.64
+0.7%
10.0%US$40.00US$28.00n/a14
Feb ’25US$35.74
US$34.73
-2.8%
10.2%US$40.00US$28.00n/a15
Jan ’25US$35.01
US$33.67
-3.8%
12.9%US$40.00US$26.00n/a15
Dec ’24US$32.89
US$32.60
-0.9%
10.7%US$40.00US$26.00n/a15
Nov ’24US$30.86
US$33.87
+9.7%
13.3%US$43.00US$28.00US$45.8215
Oct ’24US$30.30
US$36.23
+19.6%
11.0%US$43.00US$31.00US$40.9713
Sep ’24US$31.85
US$36.73
+15.3%
10.4%US$43.00US$31.00US$39.3113
Aug ’24US$36.00
US$36.15
+0.4%
12.8%US$47.00US$30.00US$36.8513
Jul ’24US$34.58
US$36.08
+4.3%
13.3%US$47.00US$30.00US$38.5012
Jun ’24US$31.49
US$36.36
+15.5%
13.5%US$47.00US$30.00US$38.4811
May ’24US$33.38
US$37.36
+11.9%
14.3%US$46.00US$30.00US$33.8211
Apr ’24US$35.05
US$38.50
+9.8%
12.8%US$46.00US$30.00US$36.6010
Mar ’24US$38.18
US$37.75
-1.1%
13.5%US$46.00US$30.00US$35.4112
Feb ’24US$38.64
US$35.00
-9.4%
11.0%US$40.00US$28.00US$35.7412
Jan ’24US$31.71
US$34.50
+8.8%
12.1%US$40.00US$26.00US$35.0114
Dec ’23US$34.65
US$34.93
+0.8%
11.4%US$40.00US$26.00US$32.8915
Nov ’23US$34.13
US$34.13
+0.01%
14.6%US$46.00US$26.00US$30.8615

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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