Shake Shack Inc.

NYSE:SHAK Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.7b

Shake Shack Valuation

Is SHAK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SHAK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$51.11
Fair Value
76.0% overvalued intrinsic discount
22
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: SHAK ($89.97) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($51.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SHAK is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SHAK?

Key metric: As SHAK is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for SHAK. This is calculated by dividing SHAK's market cap by their current revenue.
What is SHAK's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.9x
SalesUS$1.25b
Market CapUS$3.74b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does SHAK's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for SHAK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average3.7x
SG Sweetgreen
3.3x15.9%US$2.2b
CAKE Cheesecake Factory
0.7x5.8%US$2.5b
WEN Wendy's
1.1x3.1%US$2.5b
WING Wingstop
9.7x14.6%US$6.0b
SHAK Shake Shack
2.9x11.8%US$3.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SHAK is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x) compared to the peer average (3.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does SHAK's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

31 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
0.3x0.8%US$979.15m
SABR Sabre
0.3x4.7%US$830.05m
BALY Bally's
0.3x6.2%US$728.62m
BLMN Bloomin' Brands
0.2x0.5%US$715.12m
SHAK 2.9xIndustry Avg. 1.5xNo. of Companies31PS01.22.43.64.86+
31 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SHAK is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (1.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SHAK's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SHAK PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.9x
Fair PS Ratio1.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: SHAK is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SHAK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$89.97
US$115.77
+28.7%
17.3%US$145.00US$85.00n/a22
Apr ’26US$91.00
US$130.04
+42.9%
14.8%US$160.00US$95.00n/a23
Mar ’26US$108.60
US$136.50
+25.7%
9.6%US$160.00US$107.00n/a22
Feb ’26US$118.13
US$136.59
+15.6%
9.4%US$160.00US$107.00n/a22
Jan ’26US$129.80
US$131.86
+1.6%
9.6%US$160.00US$102.00n/a22
Dec ’25US$133.73
US$131.14
-1.9%
9.8%US$160.00US$102.00n/a22
Nov ’25US$124.10
US$128.50
+3.5%
10.7%US$160.00US$100.00n/a22
Oct ’25US$101.73
US$112.64
+10.7%
9.2%US$130.00US$95.00n/a22
Sep ’25US$99.41
US$112.77
+13.4%
9.1%US$130.00US$95.00n/a22
Aug ’25US$102.41
US$110.77
+8.2%
10.1%US$130.00US$90.00n/a22
Jul ’25US$86.57
US$113.67
+31.3%
7.0%US$125.00US$95.00n/a21
Jun ’25US$94.89
US$113.65
+19.8%
7.3%US$125.00US$95.00n/a20
May ’25US$103.33
US$106.48
+3.0%
8.9%US$125.00US$90.00n/a21
Apr ’25US$106.45
US$104.25
-2.1%
10.2%US$125.00US$88.00US$91.0020
Mar ’25US$107.25
US$99.00
-7.7%
11.3%US$115.00US$65.00US$108.6020
Feb ’25US$78.75
US$73.95
-6.1%
11.9%US$90.00US$60.00US$118.1319
Jan ’25US$74.12
US$69.47
-6.3%
12.5%US$85.00US$56.00US$129.8019
Dec ’24US$61.66
US$66.67
+8.1%
13.4%US$85.00US$56.00US$133.7318
Nov ’24US$57.27
US$71.37
+24.6%
15.0%US$95.00US$56.00US$124.1019
Oct ’24US$58.07
US$77.76
+33.9%
9.2%US$95.00US$68.00US$101.7317
Sep ’24US$70.07
US$77.31
+10.3%
9.3%US$95.00US$68.00US$99.4116
Aug ’24US$77.16
US$72.56
-6.0%
11.9%US$90.00US$60.00US$102.4116
Jul ’24US$77.72
US$69.63
-10.4%
12.3%US$85.00US$59.00US$86.5716
Jun ’24US$67.54
US$67.87
+0.5%
9.7%US$82.00US$59.00US$94.8915
May ’24US$54.74
US$57.88
+5.7%
11.4%US$70.00US$48.00US$103.3316
Apr ’24US$55.49
US$58.20
+4.9%
11.3%US$70.00US$47.00US$106.4515
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 22 Analysts
US$115.77
Fair Value
22.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
22
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/04/24 11:19
End of Day Share Price 2025/04/24 00:00
Earnings2024/12/25
Annual Earnings2024/12/25

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Shake Shack Inc. is covered by 33 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David TarantinoBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Jeffrey BernsteinBarclays