Stock Analysis

The 11% return this week takes Potbelly's (NASDAQ:PBPB) shareholders five-year gains to 149%

NasdaqGS:PBPB
Source: Shutterstock

When you buy shares in a company, it's worth keeping in mind the possibility that it could fail, and you could lose your money. But on the bright side, you can make far more than 100% on a really good stock. For example, the Potbelly Corporation (NASDAQ:PBPB) share price has soared 149% in the last half decade. Most would be very happy with that. It's also good to see the share price up 26% over the last quarter.

Since the stock has added US$31m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

See our latest analysis for Potbelly

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the five years of share price growth, Potbelly moved from a loss to profitability. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:PBPB Earnings Per Share Growth January 14th 2025

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Potbelly's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Potbelly had a tough year, with a total loss of 18%, against a market gain of about 23%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 20% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Potbelly better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Potbelly is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

Potbelly is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.