Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ:JACK) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Last week, you might have seen that Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ:JACK) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.7% to US$70.87 in the past week. Jack in the Box reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$487m and statutory earnings per share of US$1.93, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Jack in the Box after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Jack in the Box

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 20 analysts covering Jack in the Box, is for revenues of US$1.60b in 2024. This implies a perceptible 3.1% reduction in Jack in the Box's revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 7.8% to US$6.42. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.59b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.43 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$87.61, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Jack in the Box at US$118 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$75.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Jack in the Box shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.1% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 15% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.8% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Jack in the Box is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$87.61, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Jack in the Box going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Jack in the Box (1 is potentially serious) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.