A Fresh Look at Churchill Downs (CHDN) Valuation After Recent Share Price Declines

Churchill Downs (CHDN) has seen its stock move lower over the past month, with a nearly 7% decline and a slide of 15% in the past 3 months. Many investors are taking a closer look at how the company’s performance trends stack up compared to where shares are trading currently.

See our latest analysis for Churchill Downs.

Churchill Downs’ share price has steadily lost ground in 2024, now down more than 30% since January, and total shareholder return lags at just 5% over five years. Recent price weakness signals fading momentum as investors weigh long-term growth against growing risk perceptions.

If you’re looking for more ideas beyond Churchill Downs, now is an ideal moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With shares still trading at a sizeable discount to analyst price targets, the key question is whether Churchill Downs’ current valuation reflects its fundamentals or if investors are overlooking a potential rebound in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 34.5% Undervalued

With Churchill Downs closing yesterday at $90.02 and the latest consensus fair value set much higher, the narrative signals a dramatic gap between expectation and reality. This sets the stage for a closer look at what could propel the stock back toward its targets.

Strategic reinvestment in premium Kentucky Derby experiences and selective venue upgrades, particularly expanding Derby Week with new hospitality offerings, international marketing, prime-time Oaks coverage, and enhanced digital content, should drive substantial step-function revenue growth, higher per-attendee pricing, and stronger sponsorship income in 2026 and subsequent years. This supports higher adjusted EBITDA and net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

What’s fueling this bold price target? The blueprint is far more than standard growth. Consider major reinvestment in iconic events, expanded national reach, and a digital strategy intended to boost both margins and sponsorship value. Craving the specifics behind this ambitious calculation? The answer lies in the numbers you haven't seen yet.

Result: Fair Value of $137.45 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent shifts in consumer habits and rising regulatory hurdles could disrupt Churchill Downs’ path to sustainable growth and challenge these optimistic projections.

Find out about the key risks to this Churchill Downs narrative.

Build Your Own Churchill Downs Narrative

If you’d rather challenge the consensus or dig deeper into the numbers on your own terms, you can generate your own narrative in just minutes, and put your perspective front and center. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Churchill Downs research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for More Winning Ideas?

Smart investors never settle for just one possibility. Use the Simply Wall Street Screener to quickly spot stocks with outstanding potential and fit your investing goals.

• Harvest higher income with steady yields by checking out these 19 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that consistently deliver strong dividend returns.
• Seize the latest tech breakthroughs and exciting trends with these 24 AI penny stocks as these capture artificial intelligence momentum before it becomes mainstream.
• Strengthen your portfolio with value picks by targeting these 898 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, which trade at attractive discounts based on robust cash flows.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com