Churchill Downs Incorporated

NasdaqGS:CHDN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$9.8b

Churchill Downs Valuation

Is CHDN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CHDN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CHDN ($132.23) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($192.5)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CHDN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CHDN?

Key metric: As CHDN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CHDN. This is calculated by dividing CHDN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CHDN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio23.7x
EarningsUS$410.90m
Market CapUS$9.76b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CHDN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CHDN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average31.9x
MGM MGM Resorts International
11.3x9.2%US$10.0b
WYNN Wynn Resorts
10.2x-3.9%US$9.6b
LNW Light & Wonder
25.6x22.3%US$7.6b
SRAD Sportradar Group
80.6x34.3%US$5.0b
CHDN Churchill Downs
23.7x16.3%US$9.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CHDN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.7x) compared to the peer average (31.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CHDN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
No more companies available in this PE range
CHDN 23.7xIndustry Avg. 23.5xNo. of Companies14PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CHDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.7x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (23.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CHDN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CHDN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio23.7x
Fair PE Ratio25.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CHDN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CHDN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$132.23
US$163.02
+23.3%
3.7%US$172.00US$151.00n/a11
Dec ’25US$142.11
US$163.02
+14.7%
3.7%US$172.00US$151.00n/a11
Nov ’25US$138.48
US$162.85
+17.6%
3.7%US$172.00US$151.00n/a11
Oct ’25US$135.93
US$161.70
+19.0%
3.2%US$167.00US$151.00n/a10
Sep ’25US$138.97
US$161.50
+16.2%
3.2%US$167.00US$151.00n/a10
Aug ’25US$139.96
US$160.50
+14.7%
4.4%US$167.00US$145.00n/a10
Jul ’25US$138.56
US$149.44
+7.9%
3.1%US$156.00US$143.00n/a9
Jun ’25US$129.50
US$148.67
+14.8%
3.3%US$156.00US$143.00n/a9
May ’25US$129.83
US$148.10
+14.1%
3.3%US$156.00US$143.00n/a10
Apr ’25US$123.91
US$143.80
+16.1%
3.7%US$152.00US$135.00n/a10
Mar ’25US$119.62
US$144.00
+20.4%
3.9%US$152.00US$135.00n/a9
Feb ’25US$122.30
US$143.00
+16.9%
3.6%US$150.00US$135.00n/a10
Jan ’25US$134.93
US$142.56
+5.7%
3.3%US$152.00US$135.00n/a9
Dec ’24US$117.83
US$142.33
+20.8%
3.0%US$150.00US$135.00US$142.119
Nov ’24US$108.91
US$142.33
+30.7%
3.0%US$150.00US$135.00US$138.489
Oct ’24US$116.04
US$150.00
+29.3%
4.2%US$157.00US$139.00US$135.936
Sep ’24US$126.12
US$151.00
+19.7%
4.4%US$157.00US$139.00US$138.976
Aug ’24US$118.00
US$149.71
+26.9%
4.6%US$157.00US$139.00US$139.967
Jul ’24US$139.17
US$161.57
+16.1%
2.6%US$165.50US$155.00US$138.567
Jun ’24US$137.54
US$160.86
+17.0%
3.4%US$165.50US$150.00US$129.507
May ’24US$149.08
US$156.19
+4.8%
8.6%US$165.50US$123.50US$129.838
Apr ’24US$128.53
US$138.13
+7.5%
6.1%US$150.00US$123.50US$123.918
Mar ’24US$122.79
US$136.43
+11.1%
5.5%US$145.00US$123.50US$119.627
Feb ’24US$124.75
US$133.86
+7.3%
5.4%US$142.50US$121.50US$122.307
Jan ’24US$105.72
US$131.25
+24.2%
6.0%US$142.50US$121.50US$134.936
Dec ’23US$110.91
US$134.00
+20.8%
5.2%US$142.50US$125.00US$117.835

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 22:40
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Churchill Downs Incorporated is covered by 23 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Zachary SilverbergBerenberg
Shaun KelleyBofA Global Research
Justin SebastianoBrean Capital