Churchill Downs Incorporated

NasdaqGS:CHDN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$10.4b

Churchill Downs Valuation

Is CHDN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CHDN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CHDN ($141.54) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($193.8)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CHDN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CHDN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

CHDN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA17.3x
PEG Ratio1.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CHDN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CHDN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.7x
MGM MGM Resorts International
12.5x9.4%US$10.9b
WYNN Wynn Resorts
9.8x-12.3%US$9.3b
LNW Light & Wonder
27.6x21.8%US$9.1b
BYD Boyd Gaming
13x5.6%US$6.5b
CHDN Churchill Downs
25.3x16.3%US$10.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CHDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.3x) compared to the peer average (15.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CHDN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a26.3%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a26.3%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CHDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.3x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (24.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CHDN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CHDN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25.3x
Fair PE Ratio25.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CHDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CHDN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$141.54
US$163.02
+15.2%
3.7%US$172.00US$151.00n/a11
Nov ’25US$138.48
US$162.85
+17.6%
3.7%US$172.00US$151.00n/a11
Oct ’25US$135.93
US$161.70
+19.0%
3.2%US$167.00US$151.00n/a10
Sep ’25US$138.97
US$161.50
+16.2%
3.2%US$167.00US$151.00n/a10
Aug ’25US$139.96
US$160.50
+14.7%
4.4%US$167.00US$145.00n/a10
Jul ’25US$138.56
US$149.44
+7.9%
3.1%US$156.00US$143.00n/a9
Jun ’25US$129.50
US$148.67
+14.8%
3.3%US$156.00US$143.00n/a9
May ’25US$129.83
US$148.10
+14.1%
3.3%US$156.00US$143.00n/a10
Apr ’25US$123.91
US$143.80
+16.1%
3.7%US$152.00US$135.00n/a10
Mar ’25US$119.62
US$144.00
+20.4%
3.9%US$152.00US$135.00n/a9
Feb ’25US$122.30
US$143.00
+16.9%
3.6%US$150.00US$135.00n/a10
Jan ’25US$134.93
US$142.56
+5.7%
3.3%US$152.00US$135.00n/a9
Dec ’24US$117.83
US$142.33
+20.8%
3.0%US$150.00US$135.00n/a9
Nov ’24US$108.91
US$142.33
+30.7%
3.0%US$150.00US$135.00US$138.489
Oct ’24US$116.04
US$150.00
+29.3%
4.2%US$157.00US$139.00US$135.936
Sep ’24US$126.12
US$151.00
+19.7%
4.4%US$157.00US$139.00US$138.976
Aug ’24US$118.00
US$149.71
+26.9%
4.6%US$157.00US$139.00US$139.967
Jul ’24US$139.17
US$161.57
+16.1%
2.6%US$165.50US$155.00US$138.567
Jun ’24US$137.54
US$160.86
+17.0%
3.4%US$165.50US$150.00US$129.507
May ’24US$149.08
US$156.19
+4.8%
8.6%US$165.50US$123.50US$129.838
Apr ’24US$128.53
US$138.13
+7.5%
6.1%US$150.00US$123.50US$123.918
Mar ’24US$122.79
US$136.43
+11.1%
5.5%US$145.00US$123.50US$119.627
Feb ’24US$124.75
US$133.86
+7.3%
5.4%US$142.50US$121.50US$122.307
Jan ’24US$105.72
US$131.25
+24.2%
6.0%US$142.50US$121.50US$134.936
Dec ’23US$110.91
US$134.00
+20.8%
5.2%US$142.50US$125.00US$117.835
Nov ’23US$105.42
US$132.25
+25.5%
5.1%US$142.50US$125.00US$108.914

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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