Churchill Downs Incorporated

NasdaqGS:CHDN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$7.0b

Churchill Downs Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Churchill Downs is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 14.1% and 3.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 14.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 29.5% in 3 years.

Key information

14.1%

Earnings growth rate

14.45%

EPS growth rate

Hospitality earnings growth17.9%
Revenue growth rate3.6%
Future return on equity29.46%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated27 Apr 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

CHDN: New Kentucky Venue And Buybacks Will Counter IGaming And HISA Pressures

The analyst price target for Churchill Downs has been reduced by about $0.75 to $134.75, as analysts factor in slightly softer margin assumptions and a higher discount rate, while still reflecting mixed but generally supportive recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Churchill Downs shows a mix of cautious and constructive views, with price targets moving in both directions and investors focused on regulatory risk and future growth potential.

CHDN: New Gaming Projects Will Offset Virginia IGaming And HISA Fee Risks

Narrative Update: Churchill Downs The analyst price target for Churchill Downs has seen a modest net reduction of $1, as analysts factor in iGaming expansion risks that some believe are already more than reflected in the current share price, while still seeing room for upside. Analyst Commentary Recent research has focused on how iGaming expansion risk, especially in Virginia, fits into the current valuation while still leaving room for upside if execution stays on track.

CHDN: New Regional Gaming Venues Will Offset Virginia IGaming Uncertainty

Analysts have made only a modest tweak to their view of Churchill Downs, with the updated price target holding effectively steady near $135.50. They are weighing iGaming expansion risks against what they see as discounted upside in the current valuation.

Churchill Downs: A 150-Year-Old Cash Machine Trading At A Discount

Mar 16

CHDN: Regional Casinos And New Venues Will Offset Virginia IGaming Risks

Analysts now see fair value for Churchill Downs edging up by $0.75 to $135.50, reflecting updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and the price-to-earnings ratio relative to recent Street price target tweaks that incorporate both iGaming risk concerns and perceived upside. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Churchill Downs highlights a mix of optimism and caution, with price targets nudged both higher and lower as analysts refine their views on risk, growth, and execution.

CHDN: Regional Casinos Will Drive Future Upside Despite Dumfries And Virginia Risks

Analysts have nudged their price target for Churchill Downs slightly lower, trimming it by about $1 to reflect a modestly higher discount rate and near term headwinds around slower property ramps and softer regional casino trends, even as they continue to view the shares as attractively valued. Analyst Commentary Analysts remain constructive on Churchill Downs despite trimming price targets, citing a combination of company specific execution challenges and broader softness in regional gaming trends.

CHDN: Regional Casinos Will Drive Future Upside Despite Dumfries Ramp Headwinds

Analysts have nudged their average price target for Churchill Downs slightly lower to the mid $120s, trimming expectations by a few dollars per share as they factor in a slower than anticipated Dumfries ramp, uneven regulatory enforcement in Virginia, and softer regional casino trends, even while continuing to view the stock as attractively valued. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a nuanced view on Churchill Downs, with modestly lower price targets but continued conviction that the shares remain compelling on a risk reward basis.

CHDN: Regional Casinos Will Drive Long-Term Upside Despite Dumphries Slowdown

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target for Churchill Downs, lowering it by $2 to reflect slower regional casino trends and economic headwinds that are impacting recent performance. Analyst Commentary Analyst review of Churchill Downs highlights both areas of optimism and ongoing concerns surrounding the company’s valuation and performance.

Why We're Not Concerned About Churchill Downs Incorporated's (NASDAQ:CHDN) Share Price

Nov 14
Why We're Not Concerned About Churchill Downs Incorporated's (NASDAQ:CHDN) Share Price

There's Been No Shortage Of Growth Recently For Churchill Downs' (NASDAQ:CHDN) Returns On Capital

Aug 23
There's Been No Shortage Of Growth Recently For Churchill Downs' (NASDAQ:CHDN) Returns On Capital

Churchill Downs Incorporated's (NASDAQ:CHDN) Business And Shares Still Trailing The Market

Aug 09
Churchill Downs Incorporated's (NASDAQ:CHDN) Business And Shares Still Trailing The Market

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ:CHDN)

Jun 22
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ:CHDN)

Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ:CHDN)?

May 26
Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ:CHDN)?

Churchill Downs: A Little Bit Of Everything Makes Something Attractive

Mar 19

Churchill Downs: The Legendary Racing Operator Continues Thriving (Rating Upgrade)

Mar 12

Churchill Downs: Still Under The Radar, Still An Excellent Business

Sep 03
User avatar

Racetrack Innovations And HRM Expansion Set To Sprint Ahead In Revenue Growth

Expansion projects and growing wagering activities at Churchill Downs Racetrack indicate strong potential for increased revenue from ticket sales, sponsorships, and betting.

Churchill Downs: Solid Performing Gaming Stock Eschews Scale For EBITDA Growth

Jun 10

Churchill Downs: Making A Wager On This Proven Compounder

Apr 28

Churchill Downs: Accelerating Growth Might Justify High Valuation

Feb 06

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:CHDN - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20283,254540616N/A4
12/31/20273,13954066984011
12/31/20263,02849766083711
3/31/20262,946388379818N/A
12/31/20252,926383310770N/A
9/30/20252,885404266805N/A
6/30/20252,830432367787N/A
3/31/20252,786422293765N/A
12/31/20242,734427226773N/A
9/30/20242,671415153749N/A
6/30/20242,61540919675N/A
3/31/20242,493342-52645N/A
12/31/20232,462417-71606N/A
9/30/20232,381361-46612N/A
6/30/20232,191357-43559N/A
3/31/20232,00555382618N/A
12/31/20221,81043980537N/A
9/30/20221,695482156493N/A
6/30/20221,704486277506N/A
3/31/20221,637255356491N/A
12/31/20211,597249244336N/A
9/30/20211,511222195272N/A
6/30/20211,455204143275N/A
3/31/20211,12572-12079N/A
12/31/20201,05414-92142N/A
9/30/20201,0562-94167N/A
6/30/20201,025-26-61152N/A
3/31/20201,31710679263N/A
12/31/20191,330140N/A290N/A
9/30/20191,268143N/A323N/A
6/30/20191,183186N/A250N/A
3/31/20191,085180N/A212N/A
12/31/20181,009183N/A198N/A
9/30/2018969210N/A183N/A
6/30/2018945165N/A209N/A
3/31/2018904134N/A206N/A
12/31/2017883122N/A215N/A
9/30/2017496104N/A205N/A
6/30/201760299N/A228N/A
3/31/201770295N/A226N/A
12/31/201682296N/A231N/A
9/30/20161,30388N/A230N/A
6/30/20161,27983N/A237N/A
3/31/20161,25069N/A241N/A
12/31/201579970N/A265N/A
9/30/20151,10843N/A251N/A
6/30/20151,00243N/A217N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CHDN's forecast earnings growth (14.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).

Earnings vs Market: CHDN's earnings (14.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (15.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CHDN's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: CHDN's revenue (3.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CHDN's revenue (3.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CHDN's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (29.5%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/01 05:22
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/01 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Churchill Downs Incorporated is covered by 19 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Brandt MontourBarclays
Zachary SilverbergBerenberg
Shaun KelleyBofA Global Research