Earnings Release: Here's Why Analysts Cut Their Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBRL) Price Target To US$46.71

Shareholders might have noticed that Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBRL) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.5% to US$42.82 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$949m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.99 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store

Following last week's earnings report, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's nine analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$3.47b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 36% to US$2.20. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.46b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.18 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The consensus price target fell 13% to US$46.71, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the quarterly results. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Cracker Barrel Old Country Store analyst has a price target of US$51.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$39.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.2% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.8% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 9.7% per year. It's pretty clear that Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Cracker Barrel Old Country Store analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Cracker Barrel Old Country Store .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.