Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.

NasdaqGS:CBRL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.1b

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Valuation

Is CBRL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CBRL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CBRL ($48.41) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($9.16)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CBRL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CBRL?

Key metric: As CBRL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CBRL. This is calculated by dividing CBRL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CBRL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio26.3x
EarningsUS$40.93m
Market CapUS$1.06b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CBRL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CBRL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.8x
BJRI BJ's Restaurants
26.9x9.3%US$787.6m
FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group
52.9x19.2%US$1.1b
PTLO Portillo's
26.1x13.9%US$800.9m
PZZA Papa John's International
17.2x10.0%US$1.6b
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
26.3x25.6%US$1.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CBRL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.3x) compared to the peer average (30.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CBRL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GDHG Golden Heaven Group Holdings
3.7xn/aUS$5.82m
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
No more companies available in this PE range
CBRL 26.3xIndustry Avg. 25.0xNo. of Companies15PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CBRL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.3x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (24.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CBRL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CBRL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26.3x
Fair PE Ratio20.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CBRL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CBRL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$48.41
US$43.57
-10.0%
8.2%US$48.00US$36.00n/a7
Nov ’25US$46.98
US$41.57
-11.5%
7.5%US$45.00US$36.00n/a7
Oct ’25US$46.87
US$41.57
-11.3%
7.5%US$45.00US$36.00n/a7
Sep ’25US$39.58
US$47.29
+19.5%
9.2%US$55.00US$42.00n/a7
Aug ’25US$44.41
US$52.63
+18.5%
27.9%US$90.00US$42.00n/a8
Jul ’25US$40.80
US$52.88
+29.6%
27.6%US$90.00US$42.00n/a8
Jun ’25US$48.78
US$53.38
+9.4%
26.8%US$90.00US$42.00n/a8
May ’25US$56.36
US$71.63
+27.1%
11.3%US$90.00US$61.00n/a8
Apr ’25US$71.36
US$72.13
+1.1%
11.0%US$90.00US$61.00n/a8
Mar ’25US$66.31
US$72.63
+9.5%
11.1%US$90.00US$61.00n/a8
Feb ’25US$81.31
US$73.38
-9.8%
13.0%US$90.00US$57.00n/a8
Jan ’25US$77.08
US$71.25
-7.6%
12.5%US$90.00US$57.00n/a8
Dec ’24US$72.36
US$74.25
+2.6%
16.0%US$96.00US$57.00n/a8
Nov ’24US$65.75
US$80.13
+21.9%
14.3%US$100.00US$66.00US$46.988
Oct ’24US$67.20
US$80.13
+19.2%
14.3%US$100.00US$66.00US$46.878
Sep ’24US$81.28
US$95.13
+17.0%
10.4%US$115.00US$79.00US$39.588
Aug ’24US$92.72
US$95.13
+2.6%
10.4%US$115.00US$79.00US$44.418
Jul ’24US$93.18
US$95.00
+2.0%
11.1%US$115.00US$79.00US$40.807
Jun ’24US$99.11
US$105.43
+6.4%
11.3%US$130.00US$88.00US$48.787
May ’24US$103.92
US$106.29
+2.3%
10.4%US$130.00US$92.00US$56.367
Apr ’24US$113.60
US$106.29
-6.4%
10.4%US$130.00US$92.00US$71.367
Mar ’24US$110.82
US$106.75
-3.7%
9.8%US$130.00US$92.00US$66.318
Feb ’24US$111.72
US$100.88
-9.7%
10.4%US$125.00US$90.00US$81.318
Jan ’24US$94.74
US$99.25
+4.8%
8.8%US$116.00US$86.00US$77.088
Dec ’23US$113.56
US$100.67
-11.4%
6.6%US$109.00US$90.00US$72.366
Nov ’23US$111.90
US$97.83
-12.6%
6.4%US$106.00US$90.00US$65.756

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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