Krispy Kreme, Inc.

NasdaqGS:DNUT Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.6b

Krispy Kreme Valuation

Is DNUT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DNUT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$10.65
Fair Value
14.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: DNUT ($9.16) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($10.65)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DNUT is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DNUT?

Key metric: As DNUT is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DNUT. This is calculated by dividing DNUT's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DNUT's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio55.3x
EarningsUS$28.15m
Market CapUS$1.55b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DNUT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DNUT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.3x
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
34.8x26.9%US$1.4b
ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings
11.3x15.5%US$1.6b
PZZA Papa John's International
13.4x10.8%US$1.3b
FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group
61.9x16.3%US$1.3b
DNUT Krispy Kreme
55.3x-22.3%US$1.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DNUT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (55.3x) compared to the peer average (30.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DNUT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
No more companies available in this PE range
No. of Companies14PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DNUT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (55.3x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (24.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DNUT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DNUT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio55.3x
Fair PE Ratio11.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DNUT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (55.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DNUT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$9.16
US$14.77
+61.3%
12.7%US$18.00US$12.00n/a11
Jan ’26US$9.93
US$15.06
+51.7%
12.6%US$18.00US$12.22n/a12
Dec ’25US$11.02
US$15.06
+36.7%
12.6%US$18.00US$12.22n/a12
Nov ’25US$11.53
US$15.29
+32.6%
15.4%US$20.00US$12.22n/a11
Oct ’25US$10.52
US$15.20
+44.5%
15.5%US$20.00US$12.22n/a11
Sep ’25US$11.27
US$15.20
+34.9%
15.5%US$20.00US$12.22n/a11
Aug ’25US$10.43
US$16.02
+53.6%
15.0%US$20.00US$12.22n/a10
Jul ’25US$10.21
US$16.56
+62.2%
13.7%US$20.00US$14.00n/a10
Jun ’25US$10.46
US$16.56
+58.3%
17.0%US$22.00US$13.00n/a10
May ’25US$12.49
US$16.95
+35.7%
16.7%US$22.00US$13.00n/a9
Apr ’25US$15.18
US$16.06
+5.8%
16.6%US$22.00US$13.00n/a9
Mar ’25US$12.47
US$14.86
+19.1%
9.8%US$18.00US$13.00n/a9
Feb ’25US$13.79
US$15.82
+14.7%
15.8%US$21.00US$13.00n/a10
Jan ’25US$15.09
US$15.69
+4.0%
17.4%US$21.00US$13.00US$9.939
Dec ’24US$13.23
US$15.72
+18.8%
16.8%US$21.00US$13.00US$11.029
Nov ’24US$13.03
US$15.94
+22.4%
15.8%US$21.00US$13.00US$11.539
Oct ’24US$12.47
US$16.75
+34.3%
13.8%US$21.00US$14.00US$10.5210
Sep ’24US$13.35
US$17.00
+27.3%
12.9%US$21.00US$14.00US$11.2710
Aug ’24US$15.29
US$17.80
+16.4%
11.2%US$21.00US$14.00US$10.4310
Jul ’24US$14.73
US$17.70
+20.2%
11.6%US$21.00US$14.00US$10.2110
Jun ’24US$15.63
US$17.89
+14.5%
11.6%US$21.00US$14.00US$10.469
May ’24US$15.11
US$16.44
+8.8%
16.5%US$21.00US$13.00US$12.499
Apr ’24US$15.55
US$16.11
+3.6%
16.9%US$21.00US$13.00US$15.189
Mar ’24US$12.97
US$15.40
+18.7%
14.9%US$21.00US$13.00US$12.4710
Feb ’24US$12.62
US$15.30
+21.2%
15.5%US$21.00US$13.00US$13.7910
Jan ’24US$10.32
US$15.14
+46.7%
16.1%US$21.00US$11.50US$15.0911
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts
US$14.77
Fair Value
38.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/29 02:36
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/29 00:00
Earnings2024/09/29
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Krispy Kreme, Inc. is covered by 34 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Andrew WolfBB&T Capital Markets
Sam YakeBGB Securities, Inc.
Jaafar MestariBNP Paribas Exane