Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (NasdaqGS:CBRL) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of CBRL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

CBRL ($92.58) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($175.54)

CBRL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	3/6

CBRL Stock Overview

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States.

Rewards

Trading at 47.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 13.05% per year

Trading at good value vs. peer average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Trading below our calculated fair Price-To-Earnings ratio

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 5.62% is not well covered by earnings or cash flows

Has a high level of debt

Profit margins (4%) are lower than last year (9%)

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Competitors

Bloomin' Brands

NasdaqGS:BLMN

US$1.6b

Dave & Buster's Entertainment

NasdaqGS:PLAY

US$1.5b

Arcos Dorados Holdings

NYSE:ARCO

US$1.5b

Papa John's International

NasdaqGS:PZZA

US$2.5b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$92.58
52 Week High	US$149.36
52 Week Low	US$81.87
Beta	1.25
1 Month Change	-13.90%
3 Month Change	9.15%
1 Year Change	-35.95%
3 Year Change	-42.63%
5 Year Change	-39.87%
Change since IPO	1,619.95%

Recent News & Updates

Oct 01

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (NASDAQ:CBRL) Will Pay A Dividend Of $1.30

The board of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. ( NASDAQ:CBRL ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the...

Sep 26

Cracker Barrel Q4 2022 Earnings Preview

Cracker Barrel (NASDAQ:CBRL) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Tuesday, September 27th, before market open. The consensus EPS Estimate is $1.38 (-38.7% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $836.93M (+6.7% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, CBRL has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 63% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 4 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 4 downward.

Shareholder Returns

	CBRL	US Hospitality	US Market
7D	-5.7%	-0.2%	-2.5%
1Y	-36.0%	-34.1%	-23.2%

Return vs Industry: CBRL underperformed the US Hospitality industry which returned -34.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CBRL underperformed the US Market which returned -23.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is CBRL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
CBRL volatility
CBRL Average Weekly Movement	5.0%
Hospitality Industry Average Movement	7.3%
Market Average Movement	6.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	15.5%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: CBRL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: CBRL's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1969	73,000	Sandy Cochran	https://www.crackerbarrel.com

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. The company’s Cracker Barrel stores consist of a restaurant with a gift shop. Its restaurants serve breakfast, lunch, and dinner, as well as dine-in, pick-up, and delivery services.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Fundamentals Summary

How do Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
CBRL fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$2.05b
Earnings (TTM)	US$131.88m
Revenue (TTM)	US$3.27b

15.6x

P/E Ratio

0.6x

P/S Ratio

Is CBRL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
CBRL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$3.27b
Cost of Revenue	US$2.20b
Gross Profit	US$1.07b
Other Expenses	US$936.95m
Earnings	US$131.88m

Last Reported Earnings

Jul 29, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	5.95
Gross Margin	32.71%
Net Profit Margin	4.04%
Debt/Equity Ratio	82.8%

How did CBRL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

5.6%

Current Dividend Yield

91%

Payout Ratio

Does CBRL pay a reliable dividends?

See CBRL dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy CBRL by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Oct 20 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Nov 08 2022
Days until Ex dividend	17 days
Days until Dividend pay date	36 days

Does CBRL pay a reliable dividends?

See CBRL dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is CBRL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CBRL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for CBRL. This is calculated by dividing CBRL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is CBRL's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$2.05b

CBRL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	12.5x
PEG Ratio	1.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CBRL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

CBRL PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for CBRL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	18.7x
BLMN Bloomin' Brands	21.5x	48.3%	US$1.6b
PLAY Dave & Buster's Entertainment	11.3x	20.3%	US$1.5b
ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings	14.1x	14.8%	US$1.5b
PZZA Papa John's International	27.7x	38.6%	US$2.5b
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	15.6x	13.1%	US$2.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CBRL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the peer average (18.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CBRL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CBRL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (16.9x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CBRL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CBRL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	15.6x
Fair PE Ratio	22.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CBRL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CBRL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CBRL ($92.58) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($175.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CBRL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

13.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CBRL's forecast earnings growth (13.1% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: CBRL's earnings (13.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CBRL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: CBRL's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CBRL's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CBRL's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (32.6%)

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Past Performance

How has Cracker Barrel Old Country Store performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-13.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CBRL has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: CBRL's current net profit margins (4%) are lower than last year (9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CBRL's earnings have declined by 13.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: CBRL's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: CBRL had negative earnings growth (-48.2%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Hospitality industry average (36.2%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: CBRL's Return on Equity (25.8%) is considered high.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CBRL's short term assets ($317.3M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($502.3M).

Long Term Liabilities: CBRL's short term assets ($317.3M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($1.3B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CBRL's net debt to equity ratio (74%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: CBRL's debt to equity ratio has increased from 74.7% to 82.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: CBRL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (48.5%).

Interest Coverage: CBRL's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (15.9x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

5.62%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Dividend Yield vs Market

How does Cracker Barrel Old Country Store dividend yield compare to the market?
Segment	Dividend Yield
Company (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store)	5.6%
Market Bottom 25% (US)	1.7%
Market Top 25% (US)	4.7%
Industry Average (Hospitality)	2.0%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store)	5.5%

Notable Dividend: CBRL's dividend (5.62%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.67%).

High Dividend: CBRL's dividend (5.62%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.73%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: CBRL's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: CBRL's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (91.3%), CBRL's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (107.8%), CBRL's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Sandy Cochran (64 yo)

11.08yrs

Tenure

US$7,581,052

Compensation

Ms. Sandra Brophy Cochran, also known as Sandy, has been the Chief Executive Officer and Director of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. since September 12, 2011 and its President since November 3, 2010...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Sandy Cochran's Compensation vs Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Earnings

How has Sandy Cochran's remuneration changed compared to Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's earnings?
Date	Total Comp.	Salary	Company Earnings
Jul 29 2022	n/a	n/a	US$132m
Apr 29 2022	n/a	n/a	US$135m
Jan 28 2022	n/a	n/a	US$141m
Oct 29 2021	n/a	n/a	US$117m
Jul 30 2021	US$8m	US$1m	US$255m
Apr 30 2021	n/a	n/a	US$243m
Jan 29 2021	n/a	n/a	US$48m
Oct 30 2020	n/a	n/a	US$95m
Jul 31 2020	US$6m	US$982k	-US$32m
May 01 2020	n/a	n/a	US$7m
Jan 31 2020	n/a	n/a	US$220m
Nov 01 2019	n/a	n/a	US$219m
Aug 02 2019	US$7m	US$1m	US$223m
May 03 2019	n/a	n/a	US$220m
Feb 01 2019	n/a	n/a	US$218m
Nov 02 2018	n/a	n/a	US$248m
Aug 03 2018	US$6m	US$1m	US$248m
Apr 27 2018	n/a	n/a	US$240m
Jan 26 2018	n/a	n/a	US$238m
Oct 27 2017	n/a	n/a	US$200m
Jul 28 2017	US$6m	US$1m	US$202m
Apr 28 2017	n/a	n/a	US$199m
Jan 27 2017	n/a	n/a	US$201m
Oct 28 2016	n/a	n/a	US$197m
Jul 29 2016	US$7m	US$1m	US$189m

Compensation vs Market: Sandy's total compensation ($USD7.58M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.58M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Sandy's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: CBRL's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: CBRL's board of directors are considered experienced (5.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

NasdaqGS:CBRL Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
Date	Value	Name	Entity	Role	Shares	Max Price
14 Mar 22	SellUS$199,376	Laura Daily	Individual		1,700	US$117.28

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of CBRL?
Owner Type	Number of Shares	Ownership Percentage
Individual Insiders	281,735	1.3%
General Public	1,617,202	7.3%
Hedge Funds	2,055,141	9.3%
Institutions	18,206,785	82.2%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 72.33% of the company

Ownership	Name	Shares	Current Value	Change %	Portfolio %
11.42%	BlackRock, Inc.	2,530,936	$234.3m	-0.72%	0.01%
10.55%	The Vanguard Group, Inc.	2,339,008	$216.5m	1.5%	0.01%
9.27%	Biglari Capital LLC	2,055,141	$190.3m	0%	42.56%
7.03%	EARNEST Partners, LLC	1,557,742	$144.2m	2.53%	0.98%
3.58%	Macquarie Investment Management Business Trust	793,434	$73.5m	-16.26%	0.08%
3.38%	State Street Global Advisors, Inc.	748,387	$69.3m	-2.44%	no data
3.04%	American Century Investment Management Inc	673,884	$62.4m	-8.88%	0.05%
2.83%	Managed Account Advisors LLC	626,842	$58.0m	-2%	0.02%
2.11%	Dimensional Fund Advisors LP	466,527	$43.2m	0.15%	0.01%
1.86%	Geode Capital Management, LLC	411,220	$38.1m	-1.82%	0.01%
1.68%	BNY Mellon Asset Management	372,407	$34.5m	-21.21%	0.01%
1.67%	AQR Capital Management, LLC	370,840	$34.3m	-1.96%	0.08%
1.56%	DePrince, Race & Zollo, Inc.	344,686	$31.9m	15.96%	0.81%
1.46%	Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.	323,579	$30.0m	7.54%	0.01%
1.36%	Northern Trust Global Investments	301,111	$27.9m	-5.28%	0.01%
1.33%	Wolf Hill Capital Management, LP	295,255	$27.3m	0%	5.54%
1.26%	SEI Investments Company	278,454	$25.8m	26.2%	0.04%
1.15%	Citadel Advisors LLC	254,061	$23.5m	223.15%	0.04%
1.13%	William Blair Investment Management, LLC	251,519	$23.3m	-3.18%	0.04%
1.08%	Fort Washington Investment Advisors, Inc.	238,552	$22.1m	0%	0.18%
0.84%	Norges Bank Investment Management	186,716	$17.3m	0%	no data
0.81%	New York State Common Retirement Fund	180,014	$16.7m	-1.07%	0.02%
0.67%	Sandra Cochran	149,269	$13.8m	5.23%	no data
0.65%	Millennium Management LLC	144,440	$13.4m	1415%	0.02%
0.61%	Wells Fargo & Company, Securities and Brokerage Investments	134,597	$12.5m	3.85%	0.01%

Ticker	Exchange	Primary Security	Security Type	Country	Currency	Listed on
CBRL	NasdaqGS (Nasdaq Global Select)	Yes	Common Shares	US	USD	Nov 1981
OLD	DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)	Yes	Common Shares	DE	EUR	Nov 1981

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/10/02 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/09/30 00:00
Earnings	2022/07/29
Annual Earnings	2022/07/29

CBRL Stock Overview

Rewards

Risk Analysis

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Competitors

NasdaqGS:BLMN

US$1.6b

NasdaqGS:PLAY

US$1.5b

NYSE:ARCO

US$1.5b

NasdaqGS:PZZA

US$2.5b

Price History & Performance

Recent News & Updates

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (NASDAQ:CBRL) Will Pay A Dividend Of $1.30

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Appoints Jody L. Bilney to Board of Directors

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2023

Full year 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations

Cracker Barrel Q4 2022 Earnings Preview

Shareholder Returns

Price Volatility

About the Company

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Fundamentals Summary

15.6x

0.6x

Earnings & Revenue

Dividends

5.6%

91%

Valuation

Key Valuation Metric

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

Share Price vs Fair Value

Analyst Price Targets

Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

Earnings and Revenue History

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Return on Equity

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Discover healthy companies

Dividend

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Stability and Growth of Payments

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

Average management tenure

CEO

Tenure

Compensation

CEO Compensation Analysis

Leadership Team

Board Members

Ownership

Insider Trading Volume

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Top Shareholders

Company Information

Key Information

Number of Employees

Location

Listings

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status