Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBRL) Just Reported Second-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Shareholders might have noticed that Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBRL) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.7% to US$66.13 in the past week. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store reported US$935m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.19 beat expectations, being 4.1% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store from nine analysts is for revenues of US$3.51b in 2024. If met, it would imply a modest 2.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 3.8% to US$3.61 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.49b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.82 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$73.25, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Cracker Barrel Old Country Store at US$90.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$61.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 4.6% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 4.1% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 9.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (1 is a bit concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.