BJ's Restaurants, Inc. Just Reported A Surprise Loss: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (NASDAQ:BJRI) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.2% to US$33.99 in the past week. Revenues came in at US$326m, in line with estimates, while BJ's Restaurants reported a statutory loss of US$0.13 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for BJ's Restaurants

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from BJ's Restaurants' nine analysts is for revenues of US$1.39b in 2025. This reflects a credible 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 28% to US$1.67. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.39b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.60 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on BJ's Restaurants' earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$39.00, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic BJ's Restaurants analyst has a price target of US$47.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$32.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that BJ's Restaurants' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 7.9% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than BJ's Restaurants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around BJ's Restaurants' earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple BJ's Restaurants analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for BJ's Restaurants that you need to take into consideration.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.