Earnings Beat: Casey's General Stores, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:CASY) defied analyst predictions to release its third-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. Casey's General Stores beat earnings, with revenues hitting US$3.9b, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 13%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Casey's General Stores after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Casey's General Stores

Following the latest results, Casey's General Stores' 15 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$17.7b in 2026. This would be a notable 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 9.6% to US$15.80. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$17.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$16.14 in 2026. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Casey's General Stores after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a minor downgrade to per-share earnings expectations.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$427, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Casey's General Stores analyst has a price target of US$500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$305. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Casey's General Stores' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.7% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Casey's General Stores is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Casey's General Stores. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Casey's General Stores analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Casey's General Stores that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.