Investors Aren't Buying Toll Brothers, Inc.'s (NYSE:TOL) Earnings

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7.5x Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) may be sending very bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 17x and even P/E's higher than 31x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.

Toll Brothers certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, possibly more than the market, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

See our latest analysis for Toll Brothers

Keen to find out how analysts think Toll Brothers' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as Toll Brothers' is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 17% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 261% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 3.4% each year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 10% each year growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we can see why Toll Brothers is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It seems most investors are expecting to see limited future growth and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.

The Final Word

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Toll Brothers maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast growth being lower than the wider market, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

Having said that, be aware Toll Brothers is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is concerning.

If you're unsure about the strength of Toll Brothers' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com