Taylor Morrison Home (NYSE:TMHC) - Share price, News & Analysis

TMHC fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	6/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	0/6

TMHC Stock Overview

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public homebuilder in the United States.

Rewards

Trading at 84.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 25.39% per year

Earnings grew by 138% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Taylor Morrison Home Competitors

Balwin Properties

JSE:BWN

R1.8b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Taylor Morrison Home
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$32.79
52 Week High	US$35.51
52 Week Low	US$22.64
Beta	1.79
1 Month Change	1.71%
3 Month Change	20.37%
1 Year Change	32.11%
3 Year Change	87.05%
5 Year Change	64.28%
Change since IPO	42.32%

Recent News & Updates

Dec 21

Do Taylor Morrison Home's (NYSE:TMHC) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

Some have more dollars than sense, they say, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling...

Nov 03

Is Taylor Morrison Home (NYSE:TMHC) Using Too Much Debt?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...

Shareholder Returns

	TMHC	US Consumer Durables	US Market
7D	6.3%	2.1%	-0.5%
1Y	32.1%	23.6%	13.7%

Return vs Industry: TMHC exceeded the US Consumer Durables industry which returned 23.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TMHC exceeded the US Market which returned 13.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is TMHC's price volatile compared to industry and market?
TMHC volatility
TMHC Average Weekly Movement	5.8%
Consumer Durables Industry Average Movement	6.5%
Market Average Movement	6.6%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	15.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.4%

Stable Share Price: TMHC is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: TMHC's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1936	3,000	Sheryl Palmer	https://www.taylormorrison.com

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public homebuilder in the United States. The company designs, builds, and sells single and multi-family detached and attached homes; and develops lifestyle and master-planned communities. It also develops and constructs multi-use properties consisting of commercial space, retail, and multi-family properties; offers title insurance and closing settlement services, as well as financial services.

Taylor Morrison Home Fundamentals Summary

How do Taylor Morrison Home's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
TMHC fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$4.03b
Earnings (TTM)	US$484.72m
Revenue (TTM)	US$6.55b

8.3x

P/E Ratio

0.6x

P/S Ratio

Is TMHC overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
TMHC income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$6.55b
Cost of Revenue	US$5.25b
Gross Profit	US$1.31b
Expenses	US$821.02m
Earnings	US$484.72m

Last Reported Earnings

Sep 30, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Feb 08, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	3.94
Gross Margin	19.92%
Net Profit Margin	7.40%
Debt/Equity Ratio	86.0%

How did TMHC perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Taylor Morrison Home undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: TMHC ($32.79) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($215.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TMHC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: TMHC is good value based on its PE Ratio (8.3x) compared to the US Consumer Durables industry average (9.6x).

PE vs Market: TMHC is good value based on its PE Ratio (8.3x) compared to the US market (17.4x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: TMHC is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.3x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: TMHC is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.1x) compared to the US Consumer Durables industry average (1.9x).

Future Growth

How is Taylor Morrison Home forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

25.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TMHC's forecast earnings growth (25.4% per year) is above the savings rate (2%).

Earnings vs Market: TMHC's earnings (25.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (13% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TMHC's revenue (17.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (9.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TMHC's revenue (17.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TMHC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (19.5%).

Past Performance

How has Taylor Morrison Home performed over the past 5 years?

34.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TMHC has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: TMHC's current net profit margins (7.4%) are higher than last year (3.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TMHC's earnings have grown significantly by 34.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: TMHC's earnings growth over the past year (138%) exceeds its 5-year average (34.6% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: TMHC earnings growth over the past year (138%) exceeded the Consumer Durables industry 74.2%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: TMHC's Return on Equity (13.2%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Taylor Morrison Home's financial position?

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: TMHC's short term assets ($7.1B) exceed its short term liabilities ($1.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: TMHC's short term assets ($7.1B) exceed its long term liabilities ($3.6B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: TMHC's net debt to equity ratio (76%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: TMHC's debt to equity ratio has increased from 80.7% to 86% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: TMHC's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (6.9%).

Interest Coverage: TMHC's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (2930.5x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Taylor Morrison Home current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate TMHC's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate TMHC's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if TMHC's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if TMHC's dividend payments have been increasing.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of TMHC's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Consumer Durables industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Sheryl Palmer (59 yo)

9.17yrs

Tenure

US$10,377,789

Compensation

Ms. Sheryl D. Palmer has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Taylor Morrison Inc. at Monarch Development Corporation since August 2007. Ms. Palmer has many years of cross-functional building...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Sheryl's total compensation ($USD10.38M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.13M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Sheryl's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: TMHC's management team is considered experienced (4.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: TMHC's board of directors are considered experienced (3.5 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/01/16 23:26
End of Day Share Price	2022/01/14 00:00
Earnings	2021/09/30
Annual Earnings	2020/12/31