Taylor Morrison Home Corporation

NYSE:TMHC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.7b

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Taylor Morrison Home Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

Taylor Morrison Home's revenue and earnings are forecast to decline at 3.3% and 7.1% per annum respectively while EPS is expected to decline by 3.5% per annum.

Key information

-7.1%

Earnings growth rate

-3.54%

EPS growth rate

Consumer Durables earnings growth10.8%
Revenue growth rate-3.3%
Future return on equityn/a
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated24 Jul 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Jul 23

TMHC: Deal Premium And Completion Risks Will Dominate Returns

Analysts reduced the fair value estimate for Taylor Morrison Home to $49.00 from $62.00, reflecting lower projected profit margins and revenue growth. Recent downgrades and price target changes suggest the stock is now trading mainly on the $72.50 per share Berkshire Hathaway deal terms rather than long term fundamentals.
Narrative Update • Jul 09

TMHC: Berkshire Deal Price Will Frame Trading And Completion Risks

Analysts have reset the primary price anchor for Taylor Morrison Home to the $72.50 acquisition level, trimming the fair value estimate from about $94.54 to $72.50 as research now centers on the agreed all cash offer, reduced revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a lower expected future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Street research on Taylor Morrison Home has converged around the proposed US$72.50 per share all cash acquisition by Berkshire Hathaway, with most coverage shifting from growth focused ratings toward views that now center on deal terms, timing, and completion risk.
Narrative Update • Jun 25

TMHC: Berkshire Cash Offer And Housing Headwinds Will Guide Future P E Multiple

The analyst price target for Taylor Morrison Home has been fine-tuned in light of the agreed $72.50 per share cash offer from Berkshire Hathaway, with analysts broadly aligning fair value closer to the deal terms as they highlight the high likelihood of completion and the limited scope for a competing bid. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary on Taylor Morrison Home centers on how closely the current share price tracks the agreed US$72.50 per share cash offer, with most research now focused on deal terms, valuation and the remaining execution risk rather than standalone growth potential.
Narrative Update • Jun 07

TMHC: Berkshire Takeout Terms And Earnings Execution Will Shape Future P E Multiple

Analysts have trimmed the fair value estimate for Taylor Morrison Home to about $66.43 from roughly $70.22. Recent research leans on the agreed $72.50 per share Berkshire Hathaway offer, with multiple firms shifting to neutral stances and focusing on deal terms rather than long term fundamentals.
Seeking Alpha • Jun 02

Taylor Morrison Home Finds A Home At Berkshire Hathaway

Summary Taylor Morrison Home Corporation agreed to an all-cash buyout by Berkshire Hathaway at $72.50/share, a 23.9% premium. TMHC's valuation is fair given current housing market headwinds, but long-term upside may be sacrificed for immediate liquidity. I downgrade TMHC to 'hold' as the buyout premium leaves minimal remaining upside; the spread to deal price is only 1.2%. Berkshire Hathaway strengthens its building products segment, leveraging synergies and long-term housing demand despite current industry pressures. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 13

TMHC: Long Term Closing Run Rate Progress Will Support Future P/E Multiple

Analyst fair value for Taylor Morrison Home has been nudged higher to $70.22 from $70.11, as recent price target revisions, including both increases and cuts across several firms, point to mixed views on growth, profitability and the appropriate P/E multiple for the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Taylor Morrison Home highlights a split view on where the stock should trade, with some firms lifting price targets and others trimming them or lowering ratings.
Narrative Update • Apr 25

TMHC: Long Term Closing Run Rate Aims And Buybacks Will Shape Future Multiple

Analysts have trimmed the consolidated price target for Taylor Morrison Home to about $70.11 from roughly $70.67. This reflects slightly lower fair value estimates and modestly softer assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E, even as several recent target increases have occurred alongside a downgrade and target cuts from other firms.
Narrative Update • Apr 10

TMHC: Long Term Closing Run Rate Ambitions Will Support Multiple Re Rating

Narrative Update Analysts have trimmed their price expectations for Taylor Morrison Home, with the updated fair value estimate moving from about $73.63 to roughly $70.67 as they factor in slightly higher discount rates, modestly softer revenue assumptions, and a lower future P/E multiple, partly offset by a small improvement in expected profit margin. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Taylor Morrison Home shows a mix of optimism around the company’s long term plans and caution around nearer term earnings risk and valuation assumptions.
Narrative Update • Feb 28

TMHC: Buyer Mix And Margin Resilience Will Support Re Rating Potential

Analysts have raised their average price target on Taylor Morrison Home by $6. They suggest the stock's previous valuation discount may be overly severe, even as they continue to highlight ongoing risks related to earnings and housing affordability.
Narrative Update • Feb 14

TMHC: Fair Value View Balances EPS Risk And Peer Discount Potential

Narrative Update Analysts have nudged their price target on Taylor Morrison Home to about $73.63. This reflects updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue trends, profit margins, and a higher future P/E, supported by recent research that highlights both EPS risk and an unwarranted valuation discount versus peers.
Analysis Article • Feb 01

The Return Trends At Taylor Morrison Home (NYSE:TMHC) Look Promising

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? In a...
New Narrative • Jan 25

Cautious Land Investment And Rental Expansion Will Constrain Margins Yet Keep Outlook Balanced

Catalysts About Taylor Morrison Home Taylor Morrison Home is a U.S. homebuilder focused on entry level, move up and resort lifestyle buyers, along with single family rental communities through its Yardly platform. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narrative Update • Jan 06

TMHC: Share Repurchases Will Support Future Earnings Power And Capital Returns

Analysts kept their price target for Taylor Morrison Home steady at US$73.00, citing updated assumptions that include a slightly higher discount rate and a modestly higher future P/E multiple to reflect their current view of the stock’s risk and earnings profile. What's in the News From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, Taylor Morrison Home repurchased 1,277,533 shares for US$83.03 million, representing 1.29% of its shares.
Analysis Article • Jan 02

Are Investors Undervaluing Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (NYSE:TMHC) By 22%?

Key Insights The projected fair value for Taylor Morrison Home is US$75.92 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity...
Narrative Update • Dec 22

TMHC: Share Repurchases Will Support Earnings Power Amid Modest Margin Pressure

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Taylor Morrison Home by 1.7 percent, from 74.25 dollars to 73.00 dollars, citing slightly higher discount rates, marginally lower profit margin expectations, and a modestly reduced future price to earnings multiple. What's in the News Taylor Morrison Home completed a share repurchase tranche between July 1, 2025 and September 30, 2025, buying back 1,277,533 shares, or about 1.29 percent of its outstanding stock, for 83.03 million dollars (Key Developments) Under the buyback program announced on October 23, 2024, the company has now repurchased a total of 6,473,036 shares, representing roughly 6.39 percent of its share base, for an aggregate 399.01 million dollars (Key Developments) Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate, reduced slightly from 74.25 dollars to 73.00 dollars, reflecting a modestly lower projected intrinsic value per share.
Narrative Update • Dec 08

TMHC: Sector Tailwinds Will Support Earnings Power Despite Limited Fed Cut Impact

Analysts have modestly increased their fair value estimate for Taylor Morrison Home to $74.25 from $73.63, citing updated price targets that reflect supportive sector dynamics, despite expectations that the recent Fed rate cut will not materially alter near term housing market trends. Analyst Commentary Analyst commentary on Taylor Morrison Home reflects a broadly constructive stance on the company’s execution and earnings outlook, even as the macro backdrop for housing remains largely unchanged following the recent Fed rate cut.
Narrative Update • Nov 24

TMHC: Recent Fed Cut Will Maintain Resilient Sector Performance Through Year End

Narrative Update on Taylor Morrison Home Analysts have raised their price target for Taylor Morrison Home by $3 to $75. They cite updated homebuilder sector valuations and expectations that recent changes in interest rates are unlikely to significantly shift the near-term housing market outlook.
Narrative Update • Nov 07

TMHC: Recent Fed Rate Cut Will Support Near-Term Housing Demand

Narrative Update on Taylor Morrison Home Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Taylor Morrison Home from $74.63 to $73.63. This change reflects updated views on market growth and profit expectations following recent industry assessments.
Narrative Update • Oct 23

Analysts Adjust Taylor Morrison Home Outlook Amid Modest Valuation Decline and Buyback Activity

Analysts have modestly lowered their fair value estimate for Taylor Morrison Home to $74.63 from $76. This change is based on updated price targets and expectations that recent interest rate changes will have limited impact on the housing market's trajectory.
Analysis Article • Oct 02

An Intrinsic Calculation For Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (NYSE:TMHC) Suggests It's 44% Undervalued

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Taylor Morrison Home fair value estimate is US$119 Current...
Narrative Update • Aug 27

Order Declines And Discounting Will Erode Future Performance

Despite a significantly lower consensus revenue growth forecast and a notable rise in future P/E, the consensus analyst price target for Taylor Morrison Home has increased from $72.52 to $76.00. What's in the News Repurchased 1,729,436 shares (1.72%) for $110.07 million from April 1 to June 30, 2025.
Seeking Alpha • Mar 16

Taylor Morrison Home: Buying This Dip Makes Sense

Summary Recent months have not been kind to Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, even as the company continues to grow and trade on the cheap. The firm has seen strong financial performance with revenue up 16.7%, net income rising from $172.6M to $242.5M, and significant operating cash flow improvements. Concerns include a drop in backlog homes, rising cancellation rates, and potential labor shortages, but net new orders and share buybacks indicate confidence. Shares are attractively priced, making Taylor Morrison Home Corporation a compelling opportunity, despite market uncertainties and potential economic challenges. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:TMHC - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20277,130582N/A956
12/31/20266,621490N/A5926
3/31/20267,613668688730N/A
12/31/20258,121783777817N/A
9/30/20258,378851570609N/A
6/30/20258,403901490525N/A
3/31/20258,364907382418N/A
12/31/20248,168883174210N/A
9/30/20247,8328131527N/A
6/30/20247,386733-195-165N/A
3/31/20247,456768299328N/A
12/31/20237,418769773806N/A
9/30/20237,8908721,1431,198N/A
6/30/20238,2491,0111,4811,519N/A
3/31/20238,1841,0671,3591,398N/A
12/31/20228,2251,0531,0771,108N/A
9/30/20228,2381,050912940N/A
6/30/20228,062909656670N/A
3/31/20227,787742560578N/A
12/31/20217,501663355377N/A
9/30/20216,553485194222N/A
6/30/20216,394431661702N/A
3/31/20216,201373867907N/A
12/31/20206,1292431,0861,123N/A
9/30/20206,0382041,0011,038N/A
6/30/20205,444156536571N/A
3/31/20205,183172464494N/A
12/31/20194,762255N/A393N/A
9/30/20194,753210N/A233N/A
6/30/20194,685236N/A271N/A
3/31/20194,400213N/A107N/A
12/31/20184,227206N/A136N/A
9/30/20184,069219N/A309N/A
6/30/20183,941159N/A297N/A
3/31/20183,869126N/A239N/A
12/31/20173,88591N/A386N/A
9/30/20173,78388N/A363N/A
6/30/20173,72870N/A407N/A
3/31/20173,67456N/A537N/A
12/31/20163,55053N/A373N/A
9/30/20163,32351N/A151N/A
6/30/20163,26648N/A96N/A
3/31/20163,11342N/A-109N/A
12/31/20152,97745N/A-263N/A
9/30/20153,01853N/A-34N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TMHC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-7.1% per year).

Earnings vs Market: TMHC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-7.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TMHC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TMHC's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-3.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TMHC's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3.3% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if TMHC's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/07/25 10:11
End of Day Share Price 2026/07/23 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation is covered by 17 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Matthew BouleyBarclays
Rafe JadrosichBofA Global Research
Tyler BatoryBrean Capital Historical (Janney Montgomery)