Toll Brothers Valuation

Is TOL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TOL ($151.11) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($84.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TOL is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TOL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

TOL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA8.1x
PEG Ratio13.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TOL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TOL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.9x
BLD TopBuild
18.8x5.7%US$11.5b
PHM PulteGroup
10.3x-1.3%US$28.9b
NVR NVR
18x-0.7%US$29.0b
MTH Meritage Homes
8.5x-2.3%US$7.1b
TOL Toll Brothers
9.9x0.7%US$15.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x) compared to the peer average (13.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TOL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Durables Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.0%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.0%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x) compared to the US Consumer Durables industry average (12x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TOL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TOL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.9x
Fair PE Ratio16.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TOL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$151.11
US$152.47
+0.9%
12.6%US$181.00US$108.00n/a17
Oct ’25US$154.75
US$152.47
-1.5%
12.6%US$181.00US$108.00n/a17
Sep ’25US$144.07
US$151.70
+5.3%
12.8%US$181.00US$108.00n/a17
Aug ’25US$138.34
US$137.25
-0.8%
13.1%US$180.00US$107.00n/a16
Jul ’25US$112.33
US$138.06
+22.9%
12.2%US$177.00US$107.00n/a16
Jun ’25US$121.64
US$135.29
+11.2%
13.9%US$177.00US$107.00n/a16
May ’25US$119.52
US$128.21
+7.3%
13.9%US$160.00US$100.00n/a17
Apr ’25US$128.04
US$124.26
-3.0%
13.9%US$160.00US$96.00n/a18
Mar ’25US$116.92
US$121.98
+4.3%
11.1%US$141.00US$96.00n/a18
Feb ’25US$101.03
US$110.66
+9.5%
10.5%US$130.00US$87.00n/a18
Jan ’25US$102.79
US$104.75
+1.9%
12.1%US$127.00US$78.00n/a16
Dec ’24US$87.78
US$90.82
+3.5%
14.2%US$110.00US$66.00n/a17
Nov ’24US$74.25
US$90.06
+21.3%
15.1%US$110.00US$66.00n/a16
Oct ’24US$73.96
US$92.20
+24.7%
13.9%US$110.00US$66.00US$154.7515
Sep ’24US$83.83
US$92.06
+9.8%
13.5%US$110.00US$66.00US$144.0716
Aug ’24US$80.33
US$82.50
+2.7%
12.4%US$100.00US$66.00US$138.3416
Jul ’24US$79.07
US$78.25
-1.0%
12.1%US$94.00US$57.00US$112.3316
Jun ’24US$68.70
US$77.38
+12.6%
12.0%US$94.00US$57.00US$121.6416
May ’24US$63.17
US$66.20
+4.8%
12.7%US$80.00US$50.00US$119.5215
Apr ’24US$60.03
US$65.67
+9.4%
13.4%US$80.00US$50.00US$128.0415
Mar ’24US$58.97
US$65.13
+10.5%
14.5%US$80.00US$50.00US$116.9215
Feb ’24US$60.26
US$60.07
-0.3%
14.3%US$78.00US$44.00US$101.0315
Jan ’24US$49.92
US$56.46
+13.1%
11.8%US$66.00US$44.00US$102.7913
Dec ’23US$48.35
US$53.92
+11.5%
12.8%US$66.00US$44.00US$87.7813
Nov ’23US$43.74
US$53.00
+21.2%
13.1%US$66.00US$44.00US$74.2513
Oct ’23US$42.00
US$54.36
+29.4%
16.2%US$75.00US$44.00US$73.9614

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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