Toll Brothers, Inc.

NYSE:TOL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$12.6b

Toll Brothers Valuation

Is TOL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TOL ($126.12) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($76.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TOL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TOL?

Key metric: As TOL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TOL. This is calculated by dividing TOL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TOL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8x
EarningsUS$1.57b
Market CapUS$12.65b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TOL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TOL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.4x
BLD TopBuild
14.7x5.8%US$9.1b
PHM PulteGroup
7.8x-1.1%US$22.5b
NVR NVR
15.3x0.9%US$25.1b
TMHC Taylor Morrison Home
7.8x10.7%US$6.3b
TOL Toll Brothers
8x1.9%US$12.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the peer average (11.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TOL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Durables Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
TOL 8.0xIndustry Avg. 10.9xNo. of Companies10PE0816243240+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the US Consumer Durables industry average (10.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TOL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TOL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8x
Fair PE Ratio15.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TOL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$126.12
US$160.12
+27.0%
13.2%US$192.00US$108.00n/a17
Dec ’25US$165.17
US$157.95
-4.4%
13.3%US$189.00US$108.00n/a17
Nov ’25US$146.50
US$156.36
+6.7%
12.7%US$181.00US$108.00n/a17
Oct ’25US$154.75
US$152.88
-1.2%
12.8%US$181.00US$108.00n/a17
Sep ’25US$144.07
US$151.70
+5.3%
12.8%US$181.00US$108.00n/a17
Aug ’25US$138.34
US$137.25
-0.8%
13.1%US$180.00US$107.00n/a16
Jul ’25US$112.33
US$138.06
+22.9%
12.2%US$177.00US$107.00n/a16
Jun ’25US$121.64
US$135.29
+11.2%
13.9%US$177.00US$107.00n/a16
May ’25US$119.52
US$128.21
+7.3%
13.9%US$160.00US$100.00n/a17
Apr ’25US$128.04
US$124.26
-3.0%
13.9%US$160.00US$96.00n/a18
Mar ’25US$116.92
US$121.98
+4.3%
11.1%US$141.00US$96.00n/a18
Feb ’25US$101.03
US$110.66
+9.5%
10.5%US$130.00US$87.00n/a18
Jan ’25US$102.79
US$104.75
+1.9%
12.1%US$127.00US$78.00n/a16
Dec ’24US$87.78
US$90.82
+3.5%
14.2%US$110.00US$66.00US$165.1717
Nov ’24US$74.25
US$90.06
+21.3%
15.1%US$110.00US$66.00US$146.5016
Oct ’24US$73.96
US$92.20
+24.7%
13.9%US$110.00US$66.00US$154.7515
Sep ’24US$83.83
US$92.06
+9.8%
13.5%US$110.00US$66.00US$144.0716
Aug ’24US$80.33
US$82.50
+2.7%
12.4%US$100.00US$66.00US$138.3416
Jul ’24US$79.07
US$78.25
-1.0%
12.1%US$94.00US$57.00US$112.3316
Jun ’24US$68.70
US$77.38
+12.6%
12.0%US$94.00US$57.00US$121.6416
May ’24US$63.17
US$66.20
+4.8%
12.7%US$80.00US$50.00US$119.5215
Apr ’24US$60.03
US$65.67
+9.4%
13.4%US$80.00US$50.00US$128.0415
Mar ’24US$58.97
US$65.13
+10.5%
14.5%US$80.00US$50.00US$116.9215
Feb ’24US$60.26
US$60.07
-0.3%
14.3%US$78.00US$44.00US$101.0315
Jan ’24US$49.92
US$56.46
+13.1%
11.8%US$66.00US$44.00US$102.7913
Dec ’23US$48.35
US$53.92
+11.5%
12.8%US$66.00US$44.00US$87.7813

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 23:05
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/10/31
Annual Earnings2024/10/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Toll Brothers, Inc. is covered by 45 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christopher GrajaArgus Research Company
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Matthew BouleyBarclays