Toll Brothers Dividends and Buybacks
Dividend criteria checks 2/6
Toll Brothers is a dividend paying company with a current yield of 0.72% that is well covered by earnings.
Key information
0.7%
Dividend yield
5.2%
Buyback Yield
| Total Shareholder Yield | 5.9% |
| Future Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| Dividend Growth | 15.4% |
| Next dividend pay date | n/a |
| Ex dividend date | n/a |
| Dividend per share | n/a |
| Payout ratio | 7% |
Recent dividend and buyback updates
Recent updates
TOL: Luxury Demand Resilience And 2027 Recovery Expectations Will Shape Balanced Outlook
The updated analyst price target for Toll Brothers reflects a modest trim of fair value to about $130, as analysts factor in softer revenue growth assumptions and slightly lower profit margins, while still recognizing differentiated positioning in higher end housing and a range of recent target increases from firms across the Street. Analyst Commentary Street research on Toll Brothers over the past few months has centered on how much earnings power to ascribe to the higher end housing segment and what valuation multiple is appropriate after a strong run in homebuilder shares.
TOL: Luxury Buyer Strength And Cash Returns Will Drive Future Upside
The analyst fair value estimate for Toll Brothers has increased to $198 from $181. Analysts are balancing slightly softer growth and margin assumptions with a higher future P/E and a series of recent target increases tied to Q1 results, relative valuation, and expectations for the luxury buyer.TOL: Luxury Demand And 2027 Recovery Expectations Will Support Cautious Fair Value View
Analysts have lifted their average price targets on Toll Brothers into a higher $160 to $190 range, citing updated models after Q1 results, a view that the stock screens as undervalued versus its return on equity potential, and expectations that the company could be well positioned if luxury housing demand firms into 2027. Analyst Commentary Across Wall Street coverage, the latest research on Toll Brothers reflects a mix of confidence in the business model and caution around housing demand, margins, and valuation.TOL: Luxury Resilience And 2027 Recovery Expectations Will Offset Near Term Margin Headwinds
Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for Toll Brothers to $132.97 from $119.55 as they update models for higher long term P/E assumptions, a slightly stronger margin outlook in what several firms describe as a resilient luxury segment, and a series of higher Street price targets ranging from about $116 to $198. Analyst Commentary Street research on Toll Brothers has become more active, with several firms adjusting price targets and framing expectations around margins, demand, and the luxury segment.
TOL: Luxury Demand And Cash Returns Will Drive Future Upside Potential
The analyst price target for Toll Brothers has been revised from $154.13 to $172.75, as analysts highlight the company’s position in the luxury segment, its recent earnings outperformance, and a series of higher Street targets ranging from about $116 to $198. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Toll Brothers point to a wide spread of price targets, but a generally constructive tone around the company’s execution in the luxury segment and its earnings delivery.TOL: Slower Demand And Incentive Pressure Will Erode Margins And Constrain Upside
The updated analyst price target for Toll Brothers reflects a modest fair value change of about $1 to $119.55, as analysts factor in slightly higher expected profit margins and a marginally richer forward P/E, even as they temper revenue growth assumptions, acknowledge softer housing activity, and note cautious 2026 outlooks. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Toll Brothers points to a mixed setup, where higher price targets sit alongside a more guarded tone around execution, demand durability, and margin resilience.TOL: Cash Returns And Higher Income Communities Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have increased their fair value estimate for Toll Brothers to $181.00, citing a series of recent price target changes from major firms and updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and future P/E that collectively support a slightly higher valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent research has skewed constructive on Toll Brothers, with several bullish analysts raising price targets and pointing to factors that they see as supportive of the new fair value estimate at $181.00.Stability and Growth of Payments
Fetching dividends data
Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, TOL has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.
Growing Dividend: TOL's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 9 years.
Dividend Yield vs Market
| Toll Brothers Dividend Yield vs Market |
|---|
| Segment | Dividend Yield |
|---|---|
| Company (TOL) | 0.7% |
| Market Bottom 25% (US) | 1.4% |
| Market Top 25% (US) | 4.2% |
| Industry Average (Consumer Durables) | 1.7% |
| Analyst forecast (TOL) (up to 3 years) | 0.8% |
Notable Dividend: TOL's dividend (0.72%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.4%).
High Dividend: TOL's dividend (0.72%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.22%).
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (7.1%), TOL's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (6.5%), TOL's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by cash flows.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/03 00:36 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/01 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/01/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/10/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
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Analyst Sources
Toll Brothers, Inc. is covered by 33 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Christopher Graja | Argus Research Company |
| Stephen Kim | Barclays |
| Matthew Bouley | Barclays |