Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) After Its Third-Quarter Report

A week ago, Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) came out with a strong set of third-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$2.9b arriving 3.1% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$3.73, 2.6% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Toll Brothers after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, Toll Brothers' eleven analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$10.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$14.16, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$10.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.23 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Toll Brothers

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$147, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Toll Brothers analyst has a price target of US$183 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$92.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.5% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.3% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.7% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Toll Brothers' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Toll Brothers' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Toll Brothers going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether Toll Brothers' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.