Stock Analysis

Is On Holding AG (NYSE:ONON) Trading At A 35% Discount?

NYSE:ONON
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Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for On Holding is US$61.05 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • On Holding is estimated to be 35% undervalued based on current share price of US$39.55
  • Our fair value estimate is 37% higher than On Holding's analyst price target of CHF44.48

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of On Holding AG (NYSE:ONON) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for On Holding

Crunching The Numbers

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF (CHF, Millions) CHF174.9m CHF296.6m CHF321.5m CHF524.5m CHF648.1m CHF760.0m CHF857.4m CHF940.9m CHF1.01b CHF1.07b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x7 Analyst x6 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Est @ 23.57% Est @ 17.25% Est @ 12.83% Est @ 9.73% Est @ 7.56% Est @ 6.04%
Present Value (CHF, Millions) Discounted @ 7.0% CHF163 CHF259 CHF263 CHF401 CHF463 CHF508 CHF535 CHF549 CHF552 CHF548

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CHF4.2b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CHF1.1b× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (7.0%– 2.5%) = CHF25b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CHF25b÷ ( 1 + 7.0%)10= CHF13b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CHF17b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$39.6, the company appears quite good value at a 35% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
NYSE:ONON Discounted Cash Flow August 13th 2024

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at On Holding as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.082. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for On Holding

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Currently debt free.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For On Holding, we've put together three further elements you should look at:

  1. Financial Health: Does ONON have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does ONON's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.