Nike (NKE): Evaluating the Turnaround’s Impact on Valuation After Leadership and Strategy Updates

Nike is taking center stage after recent management updates and positive analyst reports on its turnaround efforts. With CEO Elliott Hill at the helm, sales growth and an evolving strategy have caught investor attention as the company plots its path forward.

See our latest analysis for NIKE.

Recent headlines, from new Jordan Brand store openings to candid management commentary and upbeat analyst coverage, have brought fresh focus to Nike’s turnaround story. That said, the stock’s momentum has faded in 2025, with a share price return of -8.2% year-to-date and a total shareholder return of -15.8% over the past year. This reflects ongoing investor caution amid operational recovery efforts.

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With shares lagging and fresh signs of recovery in the spotlight, investors are left wondering whether Nike’s stock offers hidden value at current levels or if the market is already anticipating the next phase of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 30% Undervalued

With NIKE closing at $67.64 and the most-followed narrative placing fair value far higher, the gap between narrative expectations and market price is striking. This contrast is fueling debate around whether investors are overlooking the company's turnaround potential.

For the stock to be worth it to me they would need to hit $103.68 in 3 years which would equate to a 20% annual return. Which when I look at everything and especially their high ROE I feel very comfortable that Nike can slowly inch towards that. Honestly, I see them being closer to $120 within 3 years.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what’s powering this bullish price target? The fair value hinges on bold targets for future growth and profitability, betting management’s strategy will deliver bigger results than most expect. Can these aggressive assumptions hold up over time? Only the full narrative reveals what is really driving this ambitious forecast.

Result: Fair Value of $96.60 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, continued sluggish revenue growth or unexpected setbacks in Nike's international markets could quickly challenge these optimistic forecasts and put pressure on the turnaround story.

Find out about the key risks to this NIKE narrative.

Another View: Market Ratios Suggest a Premium

While some see Nike as undervalued based on bold assumptions about future growth, market ratios tell a different story. Nike trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.5 times, which is higher than both the industry average of 19.5 times and its peer average of 34.4 times. The fair ratio, based on deeper analysis, is 27.3 times. This premium may point to optimism baked into the price, raising the risk that even good results might not drive the stock much higher. Is the market overenthusiastic, or is Nike’s brand strength worth the extra cost?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own NIKE Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can build your own take on Nike in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your NIKE research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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