Is Nike Stock Around 67 Offering Value After Recent Rebound in 2025?

• Wondering if NIKE at around $67 is a bargain in disguise or a value trap in plain sight? This article will cut through the noise and focus squarely on what the numbers say about its true worth.
• Despite a rough longer term run, with the stock down 32.8% over 3 years and 47.2% over 5 years, NIKE has shown a bit of life recently, gaining 2.4% over the last week and 5.1% over the last month, even though it remains down 8.4% year to date and 10.6% over the past year.
• Recent headlines have revolved around NIKE’s ongoing product innovation, its evolving direct to consumer strategy, and its response to shifting consumer demand and competition in the athleticwear space. Together, these themes help explain why sentiment has been slowly improving, even as investors are still debating how much of NIKE’s long term brand power is already priced in.
• Right now, NIKE scores a modest 0/6 valuation checks. On the surface it does not screen as obviously undervalued, but the real story only emerges when we compare different valuation approaches and, later on, explore a more complete way of thinking about NIKE’s intrinsic value beyond any single model.

NIKE scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: NIKE Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to their value in today’s dollars.

For NIKE, the latest twelve month free cash flow is about $2.85 billion. Analysts and extrapolations see this rising to around $5.89 billion by 2030, with intermediate years stepping up steadily as shown in the ten year forecast. Early years are based on analyst estimates, while the later years are extrapolated by Simply Wall St from those assumptions.

Feeding these projections into a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model produces an estimated intrinsic value of roughly $61.76 per share. With NIKE trading around $67, the model implies the stock is about 9.2% above its DCF based fair value. This suggests the shares are a touch expensive rather than a clear bargain.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

NIKE is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for NIKE.

Approach 2: NIKE Price vs Earnings

For a profitable, established brand like NIKE, the price to earnings (PE) ratio is a natural way to gauge value because it links what investors pay directly to the company’s current earnings power. In general, faster growth and lower risk justify a higher, or more expensive, PE multiple, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually call for a lower one.

NIKE currently trades on a PE of about 34.5x, which is a premium to both the Luxury industry average of roughly 22.4x and its listed peer average of 30.3x. To go a step further, Simply Wall St uses a proprietary “Fair Ratio” that estimates what NIKE’s PE should be given its earnings growth outlook, profit margins, industry, market cap and risk profile. This Fair Ratio for NIKE is about 28.0x, which is more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the broader industry because it adjusts for the company’s specific strengths and risks.

Comparing NIKE’s current 34.5x PE to the 28.0x Fair Ratio suggests the shares are trading above what would be considered a balanced, risk adjusted level.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your NIKE Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to put a clear story behind the numbers you use for NIKE’s fair value, revenue growth, earnings and margins.

A Narrative is your structured view of a company that connects what you believe about its business, like product cycles, competition and management, to a concrete financial forecast and then to a fair value estimate.

On Simply Wall St, Narratives live in the Community page, where millions of investors use them as an easy, accessible tool to turn their views into numbers and then compare their Fair Value to the current market price to help decide whether to buy, hold or sell.

Because Narratives on the platform update dynamically as new earnings, news and guidance come in, your view of NIKE can evolve in real time rather than being locked to a single outdated DCF or PE snapshot.

For example, one NIKE Narrative on the Community page currently estimates fair value at about $77 per share while another sees closer to $97. This shows how different views on growth, margins and risk can legitimately support very different yet data backed conclusions about whether NIKE is undervalued or not at today’s price.

Do you think there's more to the story for NIKE? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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