Hilltop Holdings Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Investors in Hilltop Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HTH) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.4% to close at US$30.18 following the release of its full-year results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$1.2b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Hilltop Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.74 per share, a notable 18% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Hilltop Holdings

After the latest results, the four analysts covering Hilltop Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$1.23b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 3.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 6.3% to US$1.63 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.23b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.51 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$34.67, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hilltop Holdings at US$35.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$34.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Hilltop Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Hilltop Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 3.4% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 11% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 7.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although Hilltop Holdings' revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Hilltop Holdings' earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Hilltop Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Hilltop Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Hilltop Holdings you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.