Hilltop Holdings Inc.

NYSE:HTH Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.9b

Hilltop Holdings Valuation

Is HTH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HTH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HTH ($29.15) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($18.24)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HTH is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HTH?

Key metric: As HTH is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HTH. This is calculated by dividing HTH's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HTH's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.8x
EarningsUS$106.37m
Market CapUS$1.89b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HTH's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HTH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average41.4x
CLBK Columbia Financial
103.4x57.4%US$1.7b
SASR Sandy Spring Bancorp
18.1x26.9%US$1.5b
FBK FB Financial
22.7x24.4%US$2.4b
LOB Live Oak Bancshares
21.4x31.4%US$1.8b
HTH Hilltop Holdings
17.8x2.8%US$1.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HTH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x) compared to the peer average (41.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HTH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FRCB First Republic Bank
0.02xn/aUS$27.98m
BKGM BankGuam Holding
1xn/aUS$18.48m
SBNY Signature Bank
0.002xn/aUS$2.18m
BCBH.F Caribbean Investment Holdings
0.00001xn/aUS$132.00
No more companies available in this PE range
HTH 17.8xIndustry Avg. 12.4xNo. of Companies81PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HTH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x) compared to the US Banks industry average (12.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HTH's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HTH PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.8x
Fair PE Ratio12.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HTH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HTH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$29.15
US$34.00
+16.6%
4.2%US$35.00US$32.00n/a3
Dec ’25US$31.65
US$33.33
+5.3%
2.8%US$34.00US$32.00n/a3
Nov ’25US$30.66
US$33.33
+8.7%
2.8%US$34.00US$32.00n/a3
Oct ’25US$31.59
US$33.33
+5.5%
2.8%US$34.00US$32.00n/a3
Sep ’25US$32.85
US$33.67
+2.5%
3.7%US$35.00US$32.00n/a3
Aug ’25US$31.81
US$33.67
+5.8%
3.7%US$35.00US$32.00n/a3
Jul ’25US$30.77
US$32.67
+6.2%
1.4%US$33.00US$32.00n/a3
Jun ’25US$30.59
US$32.67
+6.8%
1.4%US$33.00US$32.00n/a3
May ’25US$30.15
US$32.67
+8.3%
1.4%US$33.00US$32.00n/a3
Apr ’25US$31.12
US$33.33
+7.1%
3.7%US$35.00US$32.00n/a3
Mar ’25US$30.64
US$33.33
+8.8%
3.7%US$35.00US$32.00n/a3
Feb ’25US$31.11
US$33.33
+7.1%
3.7%US$35.00US$32.00n/a3
Jan ’25US$35.21
US$31.67
-10.1%
9.1%US$35.00US$28.00n/a3
Dec ’24US$30.76
US$30.33
-1.4%
5.6%US$32.00US$28.00US$31.653
Nov ’24US$27.80
US$30.33
+9.1%
5.6%US$32.00US$28.00US$30.663
Oct ’24US$28.36
US$30.33
+7.0%
5.6%US$32.00US$28.00US$31.593
Sep ’24US$30.78
US$30.00
-2.5%
5.4%US$32.00US$28.00US$32.853
Aug ’24US$30.69
US$30.00
-2.2%
5.4%US$32.00US$28.00US$31.813
Jul ’24US$31.46
US$31.00
-1.5%
7.0%US$33.00US$28.00US$30.773
Jun ’24US$30.37
US$31.00
+2.1%
7.0%US$33.00US$28.00US$30.593
May ’24US$30.55
US$31.00
+1.5%
7.0%US$33.00US$28.00US$30.153
Apr ’24US$29.67
US$31.33
+5.6%
8.4%US$35.00US$29.00US$31.123
Mar ’24US$32.85
US$31.33
-4.6%
8.4%US$35.00US$29.00US$30.643
Feb ’24US$32.99
US$30.67
-7.0%
5.5%US$33.00US$29.00US$31.113
Jan ’24US$30.01
US$27.67
-7.8%
7.4%US$30.00US$25.00US$35.213
Dec ’23US$29.53
US$27.33
-7.4%
6.2%US$29.00US$25.00US$30.763

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/24 00:14
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Hilltop Holdings Inc. is covered by 9 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christopher Whitbread NolanFBR Capital Markets & Co.
Christopher McGrattyKeefe, Bruyette, & Woods
Wood LayKeefe, Bruyette, & Woods