Umpqua Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ:UMPQ) Just Reported Annual Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Umpqua Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ:UMPQ) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.3% to US$20.25 in the week after its latest yearly results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of US$1.91 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of US$1.3b came in 3.9% ahead of analyst predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Umpqua Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Umpqua Holdings' six analysts is for revenues of US$1.39b in 2022, which would reflect a satisfactory 5.4% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 18% to US$1.59 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.22b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.58 in 2022. It seems sentiment has certainly become more bullish on revenues, even though they haven't changed their view on earnings per share.

Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$21.98, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Umpqua Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$24.00 and the most bearish at US$20.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Umpqua Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 5.4% annualised growth to the end of 2022 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.9% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.0% annually. Umpqua Holdings is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also upgraded their revenue forecasts, although the latest estimates suggest that Umpqua Holdings will grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$21.98, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Umpqua Holdings going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.