Columbia Banking System (NasdaqGS:COLB) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of COLB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

COLB ($28.8) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($56.97)

COLB fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

COLB Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 49.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 55.82% per year

Earnings have grown 11.5% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Columbia Banking System Competitors

Fulton Financial

NasdaqGS:FULT

US$2.4b

First Merchants

NasdaqGS:FRME

US$2.1b

Washington Federal

NasdaqGS:WAFD

US$2.0b

First Financial Bancorp

NasdaqGS:FFBC

US$1.8b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Columbia Banking System
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$28.80
52 Week High	US$40.79
52 Week Low	US$26.97
Beta	0.68
1 Month Change	-5.11%
3 Month Change	-10.75%
1 Year Change	-25.31%
3 Year Change	-20.29%
5 Year Change	-28.50%
Change since IPO	651.71%

Shareholder Returns

	COLB	US Banks	US Market
7D	1.9%	-0.01%	1.6%
1Y	-25.3%	-18.2%	-20.8%

Return vs Industry: COLB underperformed the US Banks industry which returned -16.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: COLB underperformed the US Market which returned -20.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is COLB's price volatile compared to industry and market?
COLB volatility
COLB Average Weekly Movement	4.9%
Banks Industry Average Movement	3.8%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: COLB is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: COLB's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1993	2,260	Clint Stein	https://www.columbiabank.com

Columbia Banking System, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Columbia State Bank that provides a range of banking services to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individuals in the United States. It offers personal banking products and services, including noninterest and interest-bearing checking, savings, money market, and certificate of deposit accounts; home mortgages for purchases and refinances, home equity loans and lines of credit, and other personal loans; debit and credit cards; and digital banking services. The company also provides business banking products and services, such as checking, savings, interest-bearing money market, and certificate of deposit accounts; agricultural, asset-based, builder, and other commercial real estate loans, as well as loans guaranteed by the small business administration; and professional banking, treasury management, merchant card, and international banking services.

Columbia Banking System Fundamentals Summary

How do Columbia Banking System's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
COLB fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$2.24b
Earnings (TTM)	US$208.27m
Revenue (TTM)	US$647.03m

10.8x

P/E Ratio

1.0x

P/B Ratio

Is COLB overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
COLB income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$647.03m
Cost of Revenue	US$0
Gross Profit	US$647.03m
Other Expenses	US$438.77m
Earnings	US$208.27m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.67
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	32.19%
Debt/Equity Ratio	3.8%

How did COLB perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.2%

Current Dividend Yield

41%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is COLB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for COLB?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for COLB. This is calculated by dividing COLB's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is COLB's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$2.24b

COLB key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	0.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does COLB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

COLB PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for COLB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	9.9x
FULT Fulton Financial	9.2x	12.3%	US$2.4b
FRME First Merchants	10.4x	19.0%	US$2.1b
WAFD Washington Federal	10.7x	11.6%	US$2.0b
FFBC First Financial Bancorp	9.2x	4.7%	US$1.8b
COLB Columbia Banking System	10.8x	55.8%	US$2.2b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: COLB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the peer average (9.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does COLB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: COLB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the US Banks industry average (9.5x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is COLB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

COLB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	10.8x
Fair PE Ratio	29.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: COLB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.5x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of COLB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: COLB ($28.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($56.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: COLB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: COLB is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.2x)

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Future Growth

How is Columbia Banking System forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

55.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: COLB's forecast earnings growth (55.8% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: COLB's earnings (55.8% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: COLB's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: COLB's revenue (39.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: COLB's revenue (39.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: COLB's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.1%).

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Past Performance

How has Columbia Banking System performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

11.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: COLB has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: COLB's current net profit margins (32.2%) are lower than last year (33.3%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: COLB's earnings have grown by 11.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: COLB's earnings growth over the past year (9.1%) is below its 5-year average (11.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: COLB earnings growth over the past year (9.1%) underperformed the Banks industry 20.7%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: COLB's Return on Equity (8.8%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Columbia Banking System's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: COLB's Assets to Equity ratio (8.9x) is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: COLB has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (843%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 98% of COLB's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: COLB has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (51%).

Low Risk Deposits: COLB's Loans to Deposits ratio (58%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: COLB has an appropriate level of bad loans (0.2%).

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Dividend

What is Columbia Banking System current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

4.17%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: COLB's dividend (4.17%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.59%).

High Dividend: COLB's dividend (4.17%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.25%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: COLB's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: COLB's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (41.5%), COLB's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: COLB's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (34.1% payout ratio).

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.1yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Clint Stein (49 yo)

2.42yrs

Tenure

US$3,530,394

Compensation

Mr. Clint E. Stein has been President, Chief Executive Officer and Director at Columbia Banking System, Inc and its subsidiary Columbia Bank since January 1, 2020. Since August 2017 until January 1, 2020,...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Clint's total compensation ($USD3.53M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.49M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Clint's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: COLB's management team is considered experienced (4.1 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: COLB's board of directors are considered experienced (7.7 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: COLB insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 9.9%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/29 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/29 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31