Five Star Bancorp (NasdaqGS:FSBC) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of FSBC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

FSBC ($25.75) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($75.05)

FSBC fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	2/6

FSBC Stock Overview

Five Star Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Five Star Bank that provides a range of banking products and services to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individuals.

Rewards

Trading at 65.7% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 11.21% per year

Revenue grew by 20.8% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Five Star Bancorp Competitors

South Plains Financial

NasdaqGS:SPFI

US$441.1m

MVB Financial

NasdaqCM:MVBF

US$440.9m

Independent Bank

NasdaqGS:IBCP

US$448.7m

SmartFinancial

NasdaqCM:SMBK

US$454.1m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Five Star Bancorp
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$25.75
52 Week High	US$33.98
52 Week Low	US$21.91
Beta	0
1 Month Change	2.26%
3 Month Change	3.04%
1 Year Change	3.66%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	6.19%

Recent News & Updates

Jul 22

Five Star Bancorp declares $0.15 dividend

Five Star Bancorp (NASDAQ:FSBC) declared $0.15/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 2.3% Payable Aug. 15; for shareholders of record Aug. 8; ex-div Aug. 5. See FSBC Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.

Shareholder Returns

	FSBC	US Banks	US Market
7D	3.4%	5.3%	3.2%
1Y	3.7%	-10.9%	-10.2%

Return vs Industry: FSBC exceeded the US Banks industry which returned -10.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: FSBC exceeded the US Market which returned -10.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is FSBC's price volatile compared to industry and market?
FSBC volatility
FSBC Average Weekly Movement	5.4%
Banks Industry Average Movement	3.7%
Market Average Movement	7.7%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: FSBC is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: FSBC's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1999	166	James Beckwith	https://www.fivestarbank.com

Five Star Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Five Star Bank that provides a range of banking products and services to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individuals. The company accepts various deposits, such as money market, noninterest-bearing and interest checking accounts, savings accounts, and time deposits. Its loan products include commercial and residential real estate loans; commercial loans; commercial land loans; farmland loans; commercial and residential construction loans; and consumer and other loans.

Five Star Bancorp Fundamentals Summary

How do Five Star Bancorp's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
FSBC fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$444.08m
Earnings (TTM)	US$42.15m
Revenue (TTM)	US$90.92m

10.5x

P/E Ratio

1.9x

P/B Ratio

Is FSBC overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
FSBC income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$90.92m
Cost of Revenue	US$0
Gross Profit	US$90.92m
Other Expenses	US$48.77m
Earnings	US$42.15m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.44
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	46.36%
Debt/Equity Ratio	37.9%

How did FSBC perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.3%

Current Dividend Yield

24%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is FSBC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FSBC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for FSBC. This is calculated by dividing FSBC's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is FSBC's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$444.08m

FSBC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FSBC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

FSBC PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for FSBC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	11x
SPFI South Plains Financial	7.4x	-15.4%	US$441.1m
MVBF MVB Financial	16x	42.9%	US$440.9m
IBCP Independent Bank	7.5x	-2.9%	US$448.7m
SMBK SmartFinancial	13.1x	16.8%	US$454.1m
FSBC Five Star Bancorp	10.5x	11.2%	US$444.1m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FSBC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.5x) compared to the peer average (11x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FSBC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FSBC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.5x) compared to the US Banks industry average (10.1x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FSBC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FSBC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	10.5x
Fair PE Ratio	13x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FSBC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FSBC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FSBC ($25.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($75.05)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FSBC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is Five Star Bancorp forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

11.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FSBC's forecast earnings growth (11.2% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: FSBC's earnings (11.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: FSBC's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: FSBC's revenue (15.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FSBC's revenue (15.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FSBC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (18.1%).

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Five Star Bancorp performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

8.3%

Last years earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: FSBC has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: FSBC's current net profit margins (46.4%) are lower than last year (51.7%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: Insufficient data to determine if FSBC's year-on-year earnings growth rate was positive over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: Insufficient data to compare FSBC's past year earnings growth to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: FSBC earnings growth over the past year (8.3%) underperformed the Banks industry 8.8%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: FSBC's Return on Equity (18.1%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Five Star Bancorp's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: FSBC's Assets to Equity ratio (12.2x) is moderate.

Allowance for Bad Loans: FSBC has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (5834%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 96% of FSBC's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: FSBC has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (83%).

Low Risk Deposits: FSBC's Loans to Deposits ratio (94%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: FSBC has an appropriate level of bad loans (0%).

Discover healthy companies

Dividend

What is Five Star Bancorp current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

2.33%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: FSBC's dividend (2.33%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.47%).

High Dividend: FSBC's dividend (2.33%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.95%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Too early to tell whether FSBC's dividend payments have been stable as they only just started paying a dividend.

Growing Dividend: Too early to tell if FSBC's dividend payments are increasing as they only just started paying a dividend.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (24.4%), FSBC's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years or that it will be covered by earnings.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

James Beckwith (64 yo)

no data

Tenure

US$1,947,644

Compensation

Mr. James Eugene Beckwith serves as the President and Chief Executive Officer of Five Star Bank and Five Star Bancorp and is its Director since 2003. He joined the Five Star Bank in 2003 and served as Chie...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: James's total compensation ($USD1.95M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.53M).

Compensation vs Earnings: James's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: FSBC's management team is considered experienced (4.6 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: FSBC's board of directors are considered experienced (3.1 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: FSBC insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/14 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31