NIO (NYSE:NIO) Valuation in Focus After Record-Breaking Vehicle Deliveries and Renewed Analyst Optimism

NIO (NYSE:NIO) just reported its highest-ever monthly and quarterly vehicle delivery numbers. This showcases clear momentum in both its premium and mass-market brands and is putting the stock back in the spotlight.

See our latest analysis for NIO.

Despite an intense week, NIO’s share price tumbled 12.9% over the last 7 days after a sharp rally. However, momentum for the stock remains clear, with a 30-day share price return of 17.3% and an impressive 47.5% gain year-to-date. Buoyed by record-setting delivery numbers, upbeat earnings signals, and shifting sentiment around China’s EV sector, NIO’s long-term returns have struggled (with a three-year total shareholder return of -42.9%), yet the recent surge hints at renewed optimism and potential for further growth if execution remains strong.

If NIO’s run has you curious about what else is happening in the electric vehicle space, now is a great opportunity to explore See the full list for free.

With shares rebounding sharply this year but long-term returns still deep in the red, the big question now is whether NIO remains undervalued or if the recent rally means all the good news is already priced in. Is there a real buying opportunity here, or are markets looking ahead to growth that is yet to materialize?

Most Popular Narrative: 20% Undervalued

With NIO's last close at $6.71 and the most followed narrative estimating fair value at $6.72, the stock sits practically in line with consensus, yet subtle upside remains if the big assumptions play out. This view is based on a carefully blended mix of projected growth, margin recovery, and risk, using a 12.74% discount rate as the lens for future outcomes.

Strong delivery growth driven by the launch of new high-demand models (ONVO L90, all-new ES8, FIREFLY) and a multi-brand strategy positions NIO to capture a broader user base and higher market share in premium and mainstream EV segments. This supports robust top-line revenue growth and volume leverage. Expansion and densification of NIO's proprietary Power Swap network and charging infrastructure across China's largest cities and highways removes range anxiety and further differentiates NIO from competitors. These factors accelerate EV adoption and increase recurring services revenue and margin stability.

Read the complete narrative.

What is the secret behind this slender 20% upside? It all comes down to bold volume targets, aggressive new model launches, and a transformation of the company’s recurring revenue engine. Are Wall Street projections banking on a pivot in profitability, or is it the scale narrative that tips the balance? Only a deep dive will reveal how the numbers add up.

Result: Fair Value of $6.72 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent net losses and intensifying competition could quickly challenge this optimistic outlook. As a result, NIO's path to sustainable profitability is less certain.

Find out about the key risks to this NIO narrative.

Another View: Comparing Multiples for Perspective

Looking from another angle, NIO’s price-to-sales ratio stands at 1.7x. This is higher than the US Auto industry average of 1.3x and also above its fair ratio of 1.5x. This signals that the stock may carry valuation risk if market trends or sentiment shift unexpectedly. Could this premium really be justified, or does it set up investors for disappointment?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own NIO Narrative

If you prefer digging into the numbers yourself or have a different take on NIO’s story, it’s quick and easy to create a tailored view of your own. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your NIO research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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