NIO (NIO): Evaluating Valuation After a 76% Surge in November 2025 Vehicle Deliveries

NIO (NIO) just posted a 76% jump in November deliveries to 36,275 vehicles, with growth spread across its NIO, ONVO, and FIREFLY brands, giving investors fresh fundamental data to weigh against the stock’s recent slump.

See our latest analysis for NIO.

Even with this jump in deliveries, NIO’s 30 day share price return of minus 18.34 percent and 90 day share price return of minus 22.50 percent show that momentum has been fading. Its 1 year total shareholder return of 11.53 percent suggests a still fragile longer term recovery.

If NIO’s latest numbers have you rethinking the EV space, it could be a good moment to scan other auto opportunities using our auto manufacturers.

With deliveries surging but the share price still lagging, investors now face a key question: Is NIO trading at a meaningful discount to its fundamentals, or is the market already pricing in the company’s next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 25.4% Undervalued

With NIO last closing at $5.03 against a narrative fair value near the mid six dollar range, the story points to sizable upside if its growth roadmap lands as expected.

In-house technological advancements, including proprietary smart driving chips and high integration 900V architecture, are reducing production costs, supporting aggressive but profitable pricing, and setting the stage for higher net margins as scale increases.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue climb and margin shift would justify that future earnings step change and rich profit multiple expectations? Unlock the full playbook that underpins this upside case and see how ambitious growth, margin repair, and valuation all fit together.

Result: Fair Value of $6.75 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent net losses and intensifying EV competition could derail margin progress and could force analysts to reassess both growth assumptions and NIO’s upside case.

Find out about the key risks to this NIO narrative.

Another Lens on NIO’s Value

On sales, NIO looks pricey, trading at 1.3 times revenue versus 0.8 times for the US auto industry and a fair ratio of 1.1. Yet it is cheaper than peers at 1.8 times. Is this a justified premium, or a valuation risk if growth stumbles?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own NIO Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to dig into the assumptions yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your NIO research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for more investment ideas?

Before you move on, put NIO in context by comparing it with fresh opportunities our screener has already filtered, so you are not guessing in the dark.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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