Why Ford Motor (F) Is Down 5.9% After Major F-150 Production Halt Linked to Aluminum Shortage

• In early October 2025, Ford Motor Company announced it would pause production at its Dearborn, Michigan plant after a major fire at Novelis’s Oswego, New York aluminum facility, a key supplier providing 40% of the U.S. auto industry’s aluminum sheet, severely disrupted F-150 manufacturing and is expected to impact operations until early 2026.
• This supply chain incident not only highlights the vulnerability of Ford’s core truck business to external shocks, but also brings renewed attention to the risks and flexibility in sourcing critical materials for large-scale automakers.
• We’ll now examine how Ford’s months-long F-150 production pause and material supply uncertainty could alter its investment narrative moving forward.

These 10 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump's tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch.

Ford Motor Investment Narrative Recap

To own Ford Motor stock today, you need confidence in the company’s ability to weather cycles in traditional vehicles while executing on operational efficiencies, commercial business growth, and shifts in electrification. The recent long-term disruption at a key supplier, the Novelis aluminum plant fire, directly challenges Ford’s reliance on F-150 production and spotlights the company’s vulnerability to supply chain shocks, raising risk for near-term profits and testing investor conviction in its margin durability narrative.

The most relevant recent development is Ford’s reorganization of manufacturing leadership, with Bryce Currie now overseeing global operations as Chief Manufacturing Officer. This move comes as Ford is pushed to show supply resilience and operational flexibility amid unprecedented F-150 production constraints, placing added weight on execution as a short-term catalyst for future earnings.

However, despite this new leadership structure, investors should be aware that ongoing supply disruptions could create unanticipated volatility in operating results and ...

Read the full narrative on Ford Motor (it's free!)

Ford Motor's narrative projects $183.9 billion revenue and $6.6 billion earnings by 2028. This requires a 0.2% annual revenue decline and a $3.4 billion earnings increase from $3.2 billion today.

Uncover how Ford Motor's forecasts yield a $11.15 fair value, a 3% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fourteen members of the Simply Wall St Community have assessed Ford’s fair value in a wide US$8 to US$15 range. While community views differ, recent supply chain events remind us that even well-valued stocks face business risks that can move shares in unexpected ways.

Explore 14 other fair value estimates on Ford Motor - why the stock might be worth as much as 30% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Ford Motor Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Ford Motor research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Ford Motor research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Ford Motor's overall financial health at a glance.

Contemplating Other Strategies?

Every day counts. These free picks are already gaining attention. See them before the crowd does:

• The end of cancer? These 28 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.
• Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 22 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.
• Uncover the next big thing with financially sound penny stocks that balance risk and reward.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com