Mobileye (MBLY): Valuation Check After New Oslo Autonomous Shuttle Deployment with MOIA

Mobileye Global (MBLY) just picked up a meaningful real world win in Europe, with Ruter and Holo teaming up with Volkswagen owned MOIA to deploy ID. Buzz autonomous shuttles in Oslo using Mobileye Drive.

See our latest analysis for Mobileye Global.

That makes the Oslo win even more noteworthy, because it lands while sentiment has been weak, with a year to date share price return of minus 47.35 percent and a three year total shareholder return of minus 69.92 percent, suggesting long term holders are still waiting for the growth story to translate into durable momentum.

If this kind of autonomous driving rollout has your attention, it could be a good moment to explore other high potential names in high growth tech and AI stocks and see how they stack up against Mobileye.

Yet with revenue still growing and the stock trading at a steep discount to analyst targets, investors now face a pivotal question: does Mobileye represent a mispriced autonomous leader, or is the market already discounting future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 44.3% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value sitting well above Mobileye Global's last close of $10.54, the gap hinges on aggressive long term growth assumptions.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $19.823 for Mobileye Global based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $31.1, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $12.0.

Read the complete narrative.

If you want to see what kind of revenue ramp, margin lift, and future earnings multiple could justify that valuation gap, the full narrative lays out surprisingly bold assumptions.

Result: Fair Value of $18.94 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slower adoption of advanced systems by automakers and prolonged tariff uncertainty could delay Mobileye's revenue ramp and challenge those optimistic growth assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Mobileye Global narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

While the narrative and analyst targets point to upside, our fair ratio view paints a tougher picture. Mobileye trades on a 4.4x price to sales ratio versus a 3.5x fair ratio and just 0.8x for the US Auto Components industry, raising the risk of multiple compression if growth disappoints.

Peers at roughly 0.7x sales underline how punchy that 4.4x looks in practice, because any slowdown or further sentiment shock could see the market drift closer to the fair ratio. Is this a rare growth premium worth paying, or a value trap in the making?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Mobileye Global Narrative

If you see the story unfolding differently, or simply trust your own homework more, you can build a complete Mobileye view yourself in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Mobileye Global.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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