NVDA Stock Overview
NVIDIA Corporation provides graphics, and compute and networking solutions in the United States, Taiwan, China, and internationally.
Price History & Performance
|Historical stock prices|
|Current Share Price||US$187.09|
|52 Week High||US$346.47|
|52 Week Low||US$140.55|
|1 Month Change||23.38%|
|3 Month Change||5.67%|
|1 Year Change||-7.33%|
|3 Year Change||369.02%|
|5 Year Change||363.38%|
|Change since IPO||45,513.24%|
Recent News & Updates
Nvidia: 2018 Crypto Winter Replay?
Nvidia just reported preliminary results for Q2 FY2023, warning a 19% revenue decline from the prior quarter. The decline was largely driven by the weakness of its gaming business, which could suffer a 44% contraction. These developments reminded me of the cryptocurrency winter it suffered in 2018. In this 2022 episode, I am seeing similar pressure from the crypto crash on both its stock prices and fundamentals. FYQ2 outlook and thesis Things have changed rapidly for Nvidia (NVDA) during the past few months. Let's start with a recap of its Q1 FY2023 earnings reported on May 31, 2022, only less than 3 months ago. In that report, its gaming segment was a bright spot. The segment raked in total revenue of $3.6 billion, a healthy 6% growth from the previous quarter and a whopping 31% growth YoY. The RTX 30 Series has reported the best Gaming product cycle ever. However, the business already felt weakness lurking. It provided an $8.1 billion sales guidance for Q2, representing a 2% contraction compared to Q1, largely driven by a sequential decline in its Gamin segment. Although the guidance still represents a 25% YoY growth. NVDA Q2 FY2023 ER Now, its Q2 preliminary results turned out to be much worse than the above guidance. According to the following Reuters report, the key takeaways are (slightly edited and emphases added by me): Nvidia Corp on Monday warned its second-quarter revenue would drop by 19% from the prior quarter on weakness in its gaming business… Nvidia said its gaming unit's preliminary revenue, which includes sales of high-end graphic cards for desktops and laptops, declined 44% from the previous quarter to $2.04 billion. So, its Q2 revenue would contract by 19% from the previous quarter instead of the anticipated 2%. And the game unit's 44% contraction reminds me of the cryptocurrency winter it suffered in 2018, as discussed immediately below. This leads me to the main thesis here too. I am seeing similar effects from the crypto crash on both its stock prices (through market psychologies) and fundamentals (through its exposure to crypto mining). Anatomy of the 2018 crypto winter The following charts show the anatomy of the 2018 crypto winter, with the top panel showing the Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) prices and the bottom panel showing NVDA quarterly operating revenue YoY growth. As you can see from the top panel, Bitcoin prices collapsed from over $19k at the peak in 2018 to about $3.6k in a year (a decline of 81%, which would take a 427% rally to breakeven). And NVDA's quarterly operating revenue turned from a 40%+ expansion to a ~40% contraction in tandem. NVDA used to provide an estimate of its exposure to crypto mining in the past. For example, in 2018, NVDA estimated that its crypto-related sales were about $0.6B (about 5.7% of its $10.6B total sales). While another independent analyst (Mitch Steves at Business Insider) provided a much higher estimate of $1.95 billion of revenue related to crypto/blockchain (about 18.4% of its then overall revenues). I am guessing the true answer is somewhere in between the above two estimates. Currently, we are experiencing a similar collapse in bitcoin prices. Bitcoin prices plunged from over $65k in Nov 2021 to the current $23.8k (a 64% decline, which will take a 173% rally to break even). And now, we will need to estimate how much impact this collapse will create for NVDA this round. Seeking Alpha Will the 2018 crypto winter repeat? NVDA does not provide estimates of crypto-related sales anymore, and the range of estimates has become even wider in my view. On the one hand, its CFO Colette Kress commented (abridged and emphases added by me) during its FY Q1 earnings that it's difficult to get such an estimate, but NVDA expects a diminishing going forward. …the extent in which cryptocurrency mining contributed to Gaming demand is difficult for us to quantify with any reasonable degree of precision. The reduced pace of increase in Ethereum network hash rate likely reflects lower mining activity on GPUs. We expect a diminishing contribution going forward.
Bearish: Analysts Just Cut Their NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) Revenue and EPS estimates
One thing we could say about the analysts on NVIDIA Corporation ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) - they aren't optimistic, having just...
|NVDA||US Semiconductor||US Market|
Return vs Industry: NVDA matched the US Semiconductor industry which returned -7.6% over the past year.
Return vs Market: NVDA exceeded the US Market which returned -11.7% over the past year.
|NVDA Average Weekly Movement||8.4%|
|Semiconductor Industry Average Movement||8.9%|
|Market Average Movement||7.8%|
|10% most volatile stocks in US Market||16.9%|
|10% least volatile stocks in US Market||3.2%|
Stable Share Price: NVDA is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.
Volatility Over Time: NVDA's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
NVIDIA Corporation provides graphics, and compute and networking solutions in the United States, Taiwan, China, and internationally. The company’s Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; vGPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems; and Omniverse software for building 3D designs and virtual worlds. Its Compute & Networking segment provides Data Center platforms and systems for AI, HPC, and accelerated computing; Mellanox networking and interconnect solutions; automotive AI Cockpit, autonomous driving development agreements, and autonomous vehicle solutions; cryptocurrency mining processors; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms; and NVIDIA AI Enterprise and other software.
NVIDIA Fundamentals Summary
|NVDA fundamental statistics|
Is NVDA overvalued?See Fair Value and valuation analysis
Earnings & Revenue
|NVDA income statement (TTM)|
|Cost of Revenue||US$10.26b|
Last Reported Earnings
May 01, 2022
Next Earnings Date
Aug 24, 2022
|Earnings per share (EPS)||3.78|
|Net Profit Margin||32.02%|
How did NVDA perform over the long term?See historical performance and comparison
0.08%Current Dividend Yield
Is NVDA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score 0/6
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NVDA?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
|What is NVDA's n/a Ratio?|
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does NVDA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
|NVDA PE Ratio vs Peers|
|Company||PE||Estimated Growth||Market Cap|
AMD Advanced Micro Devices
TXN Texas Instruments
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NVDA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49.5x) compared to the peer average (27.8x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does NVDA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Semiconductor Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NVDA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49.5x) compared to the US Semiconductor industry average (20.5x)
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is NVDA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
|Current PE Ratio||49.5x|
|Fair PE Ratio||49.3x|
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NVDA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49.3x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of NVDA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: NVDA ($187.09) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($184.49)
Significantly Below Fair Value: NVDA is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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How is NVIDIA forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 42 analysts?
Future Growth Score5/6
Future Growth Score 5/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: NVDA's forecast earnings growth (22% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).
Earnings vs Market: NVDA's earnings (22% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.4% per year).
High Growth Earnings: NVDA's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: NVDA's revenue (14.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).
High Growth Revenue: NVDA's revenue (14.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: NVDA's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (48.3%).
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How has NVIDIA performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score6/6
Past Performance Score 6/6
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings vs Industry
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: NVDA has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: NVDA's current net profit margins (32%) are higher than last year (27.6%).
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: NVDA's earnings have grown significantly by 25.8% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: NVDA's earnings growth over the past year (77.9%) exceeds its 5-year average (25.8% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: NVDA earnings growth over the past year (77.9%) exceeded the Semiconductor industry 52.7%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: NVDA's Return on Equity (35.9%) is considered high.
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How is NVIDIA's financial position?
Financial Health Score5/6
Financial Health Score 5/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: NVDA's short term assets ($29.6B) exceed its short term liabilities ($5.6B).
Long Term Liabilities: NVDA's short term assets ($29.6B) exceed its long term liabilities ($13.3B).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: NVDA has more cash than its total debt.
Reducing Debt: NVDA's debt to equity ratio has increased from 35.9% to 41.6% over the past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: NVDA's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (81.9%).
Interest Coverage: NVDA's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (53.8x coverage).
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What is NVIDIA current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score 0/6
Cash Flow Coverage
Current Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: NVDA's dividend (0.085%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.49%).
High Dividend: NVDA's dividend (0.085%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4%).
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: NVDA is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.
Growing Dividend: NVDA is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: NVDA is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: NVDA is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.
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How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
Average management tenure
Jensen Huang (59 yo)
Mr. Jen-Hsun Huang, also known as Jensen, Co-founded NVIDIA Ltd. in 1993 and has been its Chief Executive Officer and President since 1993. Mr. Huang co-founded NVIDIA Corporation in April 1993 and has bee...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Jensen's total compensation ($USD23.74M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD12.88M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Jensen's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.
Experienced Management: NVDA's management team is seasoned and experienced (13.6 years average tenure).
Experienced Board: NVDA's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 12.3 years average tenure).
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: NVDA insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
NVIDIA Corporation's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
- Name: NVIDIA Corporation
- Ticker: NVDA
- Exchange: NasdaqGS
- Founded: 1993
- Industry: Semiconductors
- Sector: Semiconductors
- Implied Market Cap: US$468.476b
- Shares outstanding: 2.50b
- Website: https://www.nvidia.com
Number of Employees
- NVIDIA Corporation
- 2788 San Tomas Expressway
- Santa Clara
- United States
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
|Data||Last Updated (UTC time)|
|Company Analysis||2022/08/12 00:00|
|End of Day Share Price||2022/08/12 00:00|
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.