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NVDA

NVIDIA NasdaqGS:NVDA Stock Report

Last Price

US$187.09

Market Cap

US$468.5b

7D

-1.5%

1Y

-7.3%

Updated

12 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
NVDA fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation2/6
Future Growth5/6
Past Performance6/6
Financial Health5/6
Dividends0/6

NVDA Stock Overview

NVIDIA Corporation provides graphics, and compute and networking solutions in the United States, Taiwan, China, and internationally.

NVIDIA Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for NVIDIA
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$187.09
52 Week HighUS$346.47
52 Week LowUS$140.55
Beta1.65
1 Month Change23.38%
3 Month Change5.67%
1 Year Change-7.33%
3 Year Change369.02%
5 Year Change363.38%
Change since IPO45,513.24%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 10

Nvidia: 2018 Crypto Winter Replay?

Nvidia just reported preliminary results for Q2 FY2023, warning a 19% revenue decline from the prior quarter. The decline was largely driven by the weakness of its gaming business, which could suffer a 44% contraction. These developments reminded me of the cryptocurrency winter it suffered in 2018. In this 2022 episode, I am seeing similar pressure from the crypto crash on both its stock prices and fundamentals. FYQ2 outlook and thesis Things have changed rapidly for Nvidia (NVDA) during the past few months. Let's start with a recap of its Q1 FY2023 earnings reported on May 31, 2022, only less than 3 months ago. In that report, its gaming segment was a bright spot. The segment raked in total revenue of $3.6 billion, a healthy 6% growth from the previous quarter and a whopping 31% growth YoY. The RTX 30 Series has reported the best Gaming product cycle ever. However, the business already felt weakness lurking. It provided an $8.1 billion sales guidance for Q2, representing a 2% contraction compared to Q1, largely driven by a sequential decline in its Gamin segment. Although the guidance still represents a 25% YoY growth. NVDA Q2 FY2023 ER Now, its Q2 preliminary results turned out to be much worse than the above guidance. According to the following Reuters report, the key takeaways are (slightly edited and emphases added by me): Nvidia Corp on Monday warned its second-quarter revenue would drop by 19% from the prior quarter on weakness in its gaming business… Nvidia said its gaming unit's preliminary revenue, which includes sales of high-end graphic cards for desktops and laptops, declined 44% from the previous quarter to $2.04 billion. So, its Q2 revenue would contract by 19% from the previous quarter instead of the anticipated 2%. And the game unit's 44% contraction reminds me of the cryptocurrency winter it suffered in 2018, as discussed immediately below. This leads me to the main thesis here too. I am seeing similar effects from the crypto crash on both its stock prices (through market psychologies) and fundamentals (through its exposure to crypto mining). Anatomy of the 2018 crypto winter The following charts show the anatomy of the 2018 crypto winter, with the top panel showing the Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) prices and the bottom panel showing NVDA quarterly operating revenue YoY growth. As you can see from the top panel, Bitcoin prices collapsed from over $19k at the peak in 2018 to about $3.6k in a year (a decline of 81%, which would take a 427% rally to breakeven). And NVDA's quarterly operating revenue turned from a 40%+ expansion to a ~40% contraction in tandem. NVDA used to provide an estimate of its exposure to crypto mining in the past. For example, in 2018, NVDA estimated that its crypto-related sales were about $0.6B (about 5.7% of its $10.6B total sales). While another independent analyst (Mitch Steves at Business Insider) provided a much higher estimate of $1.95 billion of revenue related to crypto/blockchain (about 18.4% of its then overall revenues). I am guessing the true answer is somewhere in between the above two estimates. Currently, we are experiencing a similar collapse in bitcoin prices. Bitcoin prices plunged from over $65k in Nov 2021 to the current $23.8k (a 64% decline, which will take a 173% rally to break even). And now, we will need to estimate how much impact this collapse will create for NVDA this round. Seeking Alpha Will the 2018 crypto winter repeat? NVDA does not provide estimates of crypto-related sales anymore, and the range of estimates has become even wider in my view. On the one hand, its CFO Colette Kress commented (abridged and emphases added by me) during its FY Q1 earnings that it's difficult to get such an estimate, but NVDA expects a diminishing going forward. …the extent in which cryptocurrency mining contributed to Gaming demand is difficult for us to quantify with any reasonable degree of precision. The reduced pace of increase in Ethereum network hash rate likely reflects lower mining activity on GPUs. We expect a diminishing contribution going forward.

Aug 10
Bearish: Analysts Just Cut Their NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) Revenue and EPS estimates

Bearish: Analysts Just Cut Their NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) Revenue and EPS estimates

One thing we could say about the analysts on NVIDIA Corporation ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) - they aren't optimistic, having just...

Shareholder Returns

NVDAUS SemiconductorUS Market
7D-1.5%-3.3%1.3%
1Y-7.3%-7.6%-11.7%

Return vs Industry: NVDA matched the US Semiconductor industry which returned -7.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NVDA exceeded the US Market which returned -11.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is NVDA's price volatile compared to industry and market?
NVDA volatility
NVDA Average Weekly Movement8.4%
Semiconductor Industry Average Movement8.9%
Market Average Movement7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: NVDA is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: NVDA's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
199322,473Jensen Huanghttps://www.nvidia.com

NVIDIA Corporation provides graphics, and compute and networking solutions in the United States, Taiwan, China, and internationally. The company’s Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; vGPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems; and Omniverse software for building 3D designs and virtual worlds. Its Compute & Networking segment provides Data Center platforms and systems for AI, HPC, and accelerated computing; Mellanox networking and interconnect solutions; automotive AI Cockpit, autonomous driving development agreements, and autonomous vehicle solutions; cryptocurrency mining processors; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms; and NVIDIA AI Enterprise and other software.

NVIDIA Fundamentals Summary

How do NVIDIA's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
NVDA fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$468.48b
Earnings (TTM)US$9.46b
Revenue (TTM)US$29.54b

49.5x

P/E Ratio

15.9x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
NVDA income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$29.54b
Cost of RevenueUS$10.26b
Gross ProfitUS$19.28b
Other ExpensesUS$9.82b
EarningsUS$9.46b

Last Reported Earnings

May 01, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 24, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)3.78
Gross Margin65.26%
Net Profit Margin32.02%
Debt/Equity Ratio41.6%

How did NVDA perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.08%

Current Dividend Yield

4%

Payout Ratio
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is NVDA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NVDA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

NVDA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue15.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA36.7x
PEG Ratio2.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NVDA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

NVDA PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for NVDA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.6x
AMD Advanced Micro Devices
52x27.7%US$162.8b
AVGO Broadcom
26.1x9.5%US$225.4b
QCOM QUALCOMM
13.2x0.3%US$169.9b
TXN Texas Instruments
19.8x-4.4%US$169.4b
NVDA NVIDIA
49.5x22.0%US$468.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NVDA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49.5x) compared to the peer average (27.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NVDA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Semiconductor Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NVDA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49.5x) compared to the US Semiconductor industry average (20.5x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NVDA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NVDA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio49.5x
Fair PE Ratio49.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NVDA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49.3x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NVDA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NVDA ($187.09) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($184.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NVDA is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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Future Growth

How is NVIDIA forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 42 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


22.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NVDA's forecast earnings growth (22% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: NVDA's earnings (22% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: NVDA's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: NVDA's revenue (14.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NVDA's revenue (14.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NVDA's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (48.3%).


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Past Performance

How has NVIDIA performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

6/6

Past Performance Score 6/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


25.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NVDA has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: NVDA's current net profit margins (32%) are higher than last year (27.6%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NVDA's earnings have grown significantly by 25.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: NVDA's earnings growth over the past year (77.9%) exceeds its 5-year average (25.8% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: NVDA earnings growth over the past year (77.9%) exceeded the Semiconductor industry 52.7%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: NVDA's Return on Equity (35.9%) is considered high.


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Financial Health

How is NVIDIA's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NVDA's short term assets ($29.6B) exceed its short term liabilities ($5.6B).

Long Term Liabilities: NVDA's short term assets ($29.6B) exceed its long term liabilities ($13.3B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NVDA has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: NVDA's debt to equity ratio has increased from 35.9% to 41.6% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: NVDA's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (81.9%).

Interest Coverage: NVDA's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (53.8x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is NVIDIA current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


0.085%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: NVDA's dividend (0.085%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.49%).

High Dividend: NVDA's dividend (0.085%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: NVDA is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: NVDA is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: NVDA is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: NVDA is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.


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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

13.6yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Jensen Huang (59 yo)

29.33yrs

Tenure

US$23,737,661

Compensation

Mr. Jen-Hsun Huang, also known as Jensen, Co-founded NVIDIA Ltd. in 1993 and has been its Chief Executive Officer and President since 1993. Mr. Huang co-founded NVIDIA Corporation in April 1993 and has bee...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Jensen's total compensation ($USD23.74M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD12.88M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Jensen's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: NVDA's management team is seasoned and experienced (13.6 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: NVDA's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 12.3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: NVDA insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

NVIDIA Corporation's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: NVIDIA Corporation
  • Ticker: NVDA
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 1993
  • Industry: Semiconductors
  • Sector: Semiconductors
  • Implied Market Cap: US$468.476b
  • Shares outstanding: 2.50b
  • Website: https://www.nvidia.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • NVIDIA Corporation
  • 2788 San Tomas Expressway
  • Santa Clara
  • California
  • 95051
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/12 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings2022/05/01
Annual Earnings2022/01/30


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.