Can Lucid (LCID) Balance Uber Ambitions With EV Policy Hurdles and Supply Challenges?

• Earlier this week, Lucid Group announced it delivered a record 4,078 vehicles in the third quarter of 2025 and finalized a major partnership with Uber to develop 20,000 Gravity SUVs for autonomous fleets, while also lowering its full-year production guidance due to supply constraints and the expiration of key EV tax credits.
• The Uber partnership signals a push into the high-growth autonomous ride-hailing market, but the loss of federal EV incentives and shifting production targets point to persistent operating and policy challenges.
• We'll examine how Lucid's expanded partnership with Uber might reshape its investment narrative amid changing federal EV incentives.

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Lucid Group Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Lucid shareholder today, you need conviction in the company's ability to scale up EV deliveries and leverage autonomous technology partnerships, all while weathering negative margins and external headwinds. The latest quarterly record for vehicle deliveries and the Uber partnership may reinforce the growth story, but the downward revision to production guidance and the loss of federal EV incentives remain the most immediate catalyst and risk, respectively, for the stock, these shifts materially impact the business outlook heading into year-end.

The most relevant recent announcement is Lucid’s deal with Uber: Uber committed to purchase at least 20,000 Gravity SUVs, integrating Lucid vehicles into its autonomous ride-hailing fleets. This agreement not only broadens Lucid’s market reach but also puts a spotlight on supply chain execution, since any disruption or failure to ramp up Gravity SUV production could jeopardize both this catalyst and investor confidence.

By contrast, investors should be acutely aware that the disappearance of key federal EV incentives could rapidly shift demand fundamentals...

Read the full narrative on Lucid Group (it's free!)

Lucid Group's narrative projects $5.6 billion revenue and $285.8 million earnings by 2028. This requires 82.4% yearly revenue growth and a $3.4 billion earnings increase from current earnings of -$3.1 billion.

Uncover how Lucid Group's forecasts yield a $23.79 fair value, a 13% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community’s 16 fair value estimates for Lucid span a wide range, from just US$0.53 to US$30 per share. With the imminent loss of EV tax credits posing a major demand risk, this breadth of opinion underscores the importance of seeing how your outlook compares.

Explore 16 other fair value estimates on Lucid Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 43% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Lucid Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Lucid Group research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Lucid Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Lucid Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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