Orange Polska (WSE:OPL) - Stock price, News & Analysis

OPL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

OPL Stock Overview

Orange Polska S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Poland.

Rewards

Trading at 66% below our estimate of its fair value

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 14.1% per year for the next 3 years

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Orange Polska
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	zł8.36
52 Week High	zł8.88
52 Week Low	zł5.79
Beta	0.74
1 Month Change	7.32%
3 Month Change	0.91%
1 Year Change	31.99%
3 Year Change	74.06%
5 Year Change	59.14%
Change since IPO	-50.56%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 12

We Think Orange Polska (WSE:OPL) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...

Jul 04

Orange Polska S.A.'s (WSE:OPL) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 55% Above Its Share Price

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Orange Polska S.A...

Shareholder Returns

	OPL	PL Telecom	PL Market
7D	-4.3%	-4.0%	-3.8%
1Y	32.0%	33.4%	20.3%

Return vs Industry: OPL underperformed the Polish Telecom industry which returned 36.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: OPL exceeded the Polish Market which returned 18.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is OPL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
OPL volatility
OPL Average Weekly Movement	3.7%
Telecom Industry Average Movement	3.6%
Market Average Movement	5.4%
10% most volatile stocks in PL Market	10.6%
10% least volatile stocks in PL Market	3.3%

Stable Share Price: OPL is less volatile than 75% of Polish stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: OPL's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1991	10,915	Julien Ducarroz	https://www.orange.pl

Orange Polska S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Poland. It offers mobile and fixed telecommunications services, including calls, messaging, content, and access to the Internet and TV; information and communications technology, leased lines, and other value added telecommunication services; and data transmission services. The company also sells telecommunications equipment and electrical energy; constructs telecommunications infrastructure; and provides financial services.

Orange Polska Fundamentals Summary

How do Orange Polska's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
OPL fundamental statistics
Market Cap	zł10.96b
Earnings (TTM)	zł1.72b
Revenue (TTM)	zł11.84b

6.4x

P/E Ratio

0.9x

P/S Ratio

Is OPL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
OPL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	zł11.84b
Cost of Revenue	zł8.08b
Gross Profit	zł3.76b
Expenses	zł2.04b
Earnings	zł1.72b

Last Reported Earnings

Sep 30, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Feb 16, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.31
Gross Margin	31.76%
Net Profit Margin	14.53%
Debt/Equity Ratio	40.4%

How did OPL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Orange Polska undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: OPL (PLN8.36) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PLN24.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OPL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: OPL is good value based on its PE Ratio (6.4x) compared to the Polish Telecom industry average (13.1x).

PE vs Market: OPL is good value based on its PE Ratio (6.4x) compared to the Polish market (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: OPL's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: OPL is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.9x) compared to the PL Telecom industry average (1.5x).

Future Growth

How is Orange Polska forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

-14.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: OPL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-14.1% per year).

Earnings vs Market: OPL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-14.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: OPL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: OPL's revenue (1.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Polish market (8.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: OPL's revenue (1.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: OPL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (8.5%).

Past Performance

How has Orange Polska performed over the past 5 years?

78.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: OPL has a large one-off gain of PLN1.5B impacting its September 30 2021 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: OPL became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: OPL has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 78.7% per year.

Accelerating Growth: OPL has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: OPL has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Telecom industry (18.3%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: OPL's Return on Equity (13.8%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Orange Polska's financial position?

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: OPL's short term assets (PLN3.9B) do not cover its short term liabilities (PLN4.0B).

Long Term Liabilities: OPL's short term assets (PLN3.9B) do not cover its long term liabilities (PLN8.9B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: OPL's net debt to equity ratio (35%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: OPL's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 63.6% to 40.4% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: OPL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (63.4%).

Interest Coverage: OPL's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (3.1x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Orange Polska current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

4.07%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate OPL's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate OPL's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if OPL's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if OPL's dividend payments have been increasing.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: OPL is not paying a notable dividend for the Polish market.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of OPL's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the Polish market.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Telecom industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.0yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Julien Ducarroz (46 yo)

1.17yrs

Tenure

zł3,411,000

Compensation

Mr. Julien Ducarroz is the Chief Executive Officer and President of the Management Board of Orange Polska at Orange SA since September 1, 2020. Between 2016 and 2020 he was the CEO of Orange Moldova where...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Julien's total compensation ($USD820.54K) is about average for companies of similar size in the Polish market ($USD746.41K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Julien's compensation with company performance.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: OPL's management team is considered experienced (3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: OPL's board of directors are considered experienced (3.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2021/11/29 22:57
End of Day Share Price	2021/11/29 00:00
Earnings	2021/09/30
Annual Earnings	2020/12/31

Market Cap

7D

1Y

Updated

Data