There's Reason For Concern Over CMR, S.A.B. de C.V.'s (BMV:CMRB) Massive 29% Price Jump

CMR, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:CMRB) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 29% after a shaky period beforehand. Looking further back, the 18% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

After such a large jump in price, CMR. de's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 14.4x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Mexico, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 12x and even P/E's below 7x are quite common. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at CMR. de over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for CMR. de

Although there are no analyst estimates available for CMR. de, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

CMR. de's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 21%. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 15% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's alarming that CMR. de's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Final Word

The large bounce in CMR. de's shares has lifted the company's P/E to a fairly high level. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of CMR. de revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Plus, you should also learn about these 3 warning signs we've spotted with CMR. de (including 2 which don't sit too well with us).

You might be able to find a better investment than CMR. de. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.