Is Italian Antitrust Probe Into Alleged Price-Fixing Altering The Investment Case For Citizen Watch (TSE:7762)?

• Italy’s antitrust authority has opened an investigation into Citizen Watch and The Swatch Group over suspected retail price-fixing practices for watches sold in Italy, conducting inspections at Citizen Watch Italy’s offices in early December 2025.
• The probe raises questions about how alleged coordination of retail prices and dealer monitoring could affect Citizen Watch’s competitive positioning and brand reputation in a key European market.
• Next, we’ll examine how this Italian antitrust probe into alleged price restrictions may influence Citizen Watch’s broader investment narrative and risk profile.

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What Is Citizen Watch's Investment Narrative?

To own Citizen Watch today, you need to believe the group can keep translating stable, modest growth in its core watch brands and machine tools into solid cash generation, while maintaining disciplined capital allocation through rising dividends and active treasury stock management. The short term story had been about delivering on the upgraded FY2026 guidance and digesting the Nikkei 225 removal without losing market interest, something the strong recent share price performance suggests the market was comfortable with. The new Italian antitrust probe adds a fresh layer of uncertainty, mostly around potential fines, distribution friction and brand perception in Europe, but at this stage it does not yet look like a thesis-breaking event relative to the company’s broader global footprint and current earnings trajectory.

However, the antitrust investigation could evolve into a far more material overhang than it currently appears. Citizen Watch's shares are on the way up, but they could be overextended by 20%. Uncover the fair value now.

Exploring Other Perspectives

You can see just how different opinions can be when one Simply Wall St Community estimate places fair value near ¥51,289.86, far above both market price and analyst targets, while others focus on near term risks such as the Italian antitrust probe and slowing profit forecasts, which could cap how much of that upside story actually plays out.

Explore another fair value estimate on Citizen Watch - why the stock might be worth just ¥51290!

Build Your Own Citizen Watch Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Citizen Watch research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Citizen Watch research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Citizen Watch's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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