NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. Just Beat Revenue By 11%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week, you might have seen that NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. (TSE:3186) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.6% to JP¥1,498 in the past week. NEXTAGE beat revenue forecasts by a solid 11% to hit JP¥145b. Statutory earnings per share came in at JP¥99.90, in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, NEXTAGE's seven analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥587.6b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 32% to JP¥125. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥585.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥125 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for NEXTAGE

With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 25% to JP¥1,968, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic NEXTAGE analyst has a price target of JP¥2,500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,300. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that NEXTAGE's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than NEXTAGE.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that NEXTAGE's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NEXTAGE going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here. .

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for NEXTAGE (1 is potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.