NEXTAGE Co., Ltd.

TSE:3186 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥119.7b

NEXTAGE Valuation

Is 3186 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3186 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3186 (¥1492) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥4460.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3186 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3186?

Key metric: As 3186 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 3186. This is calculated by dividing 3186's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 3186's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.5x
EarningsJP¥8.25b
Market CapJP¥119.66b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3186's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3186 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.8x
9882 Yellow Hat
11.5xn/aJP¥116.2b
9832 Autobacs Seven
39.1x28.2%JP¥112.2b
7599 IDOM
8.1x10.2%JP¥106.8b
7593 Vt HoldingsLtd
8.3x10.5%JP¥55.4b
3186 NEXTAGE
14.5x25.0%JP¥119.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3186 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x) compared to the peer average (16.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3186's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Specialty Retail Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
3186 14.5xIndustry Avg. 13.5xNo. of Companies16PE0816243240+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3186 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x) compared to the JP Specialty Retail industry average (13.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3186's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3186 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.5x
Fair PE Ratio20.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3186 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3186 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥1,492.00
JP¥3,123.33
+109.3%
25.9%JP¥4,040.00JP¥2,200.00n/a6
Nov ’25JP¥1,487.00
JP¥3,123.33
+110.0%
25.9%JP¥4,040.00JP¥2,200.00n/a6
Oct ’25JP¥1,836.00
JP¥3,290.00
+79.2%
21.2%JP¥4,040.00JP¥2,200.00n/a6
Sep ’25JP¥2,070.00
JP¥3,290.00
+58.9%
21.2%JP¥4,040.00JP¥2,200.00n/a6
Aug ’25JP¥2,014.00
JP¥3,140.00
+55.9%
21.3%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,200.00n/a5
Jul ’25JP¥2,414.00
JP¥3,140.00
+30.1%
21.3%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,200.00n/a5
Jun ’25JP¥2,463.00
JP¥3,140.00
+27.5%
21.3%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,200.00n/a5
May ’25JP¥2,721.00
JP¥3,000.00
+10.3%
22.6%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,200.00n/a4
Apr ’25JP¥2,734.00
JP¥2,950.00
+7.9%
25.1%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,000.00n/a4
Mar ’25JP¥2,500.00
JP¥2,950.00
+18.0%
25.1%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,000.00n/a4
Feb ’25JP¥2,231.00
JP¥2,866.67
+28.5%
29.2%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,000.00n/a3
Jan ’25JP¥2,588.00
JP¥3,300.00
+27.5%
21.2%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,600.00n/a2
Dec ’24JP¥2,321.00
JP¥3,366.67
+45.1%
17.2%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,600.00n/a3
Nov ’24JP¥2,056.00
JP¥3,366.67
+63.7%
17.2%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,487.003
Oct ’24JP¥2,282.00
JP¥4,566.67
+100.1%
13.4%JP¥5,000.00JP¥3,700.00JP¥1,836.003
Sep ’24JP¥3,315.00
JP¥4,060.00
+22.5%
19.8%JP¥5,000.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,070.005
Aug ’24JP¥3,725.00
JP¥4,158.33
+11.6%
18.4%JP¥5,000.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,014.006
Jul ’24JP¥2,787.00
JP¥3,741.67
+34.3%
13.5%JP¥4,650.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,414.006
Jun ’24JP¥2,459.00
JP¥3,741.67
+52.2%
13.5%JP¥4,650.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,463.006
May ’24JP¥2,414.00
JP¥3,741.67
+55.0%
13.5%JP¥4,650.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,721.006
Apr ’24JP¥2,760.00
JP¥4,060.00
+47.1%
8.1%JP¥4,650.00JP¥3,650.00JP¥2,734.005
Mar ’24JP¥3,055.00
JP¥4,048.33
+32.5%
7.5%JP¥4,650.00JP¥3,650.00JP¥2,500.006
Feb ’24JP¥3,020.00
JP¥4,048.33
+34.1%
7.5%JP¥4,650.00JP¥3,650.00JP¥2,231.006
Jan ’24JP¥2,540.00
JP¥3,998.33
+57.4%
8.6%JP¥4,650.00JP¥3,600.00JP¥2,588.006
Dec ’23JP¥3,050.00
JP¥3,998.33
+31.1%
8.6%JP¥4,650.00JP¥3,600.00JP¥2,321.006
Nov ’23JP¥2,878.00
JP¥4,068.00
+41.3%
8.3%JP¥4,650.00JP¥3,600.00JP¥2,056.005

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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