Buy Or Sell Opportunity • 22h
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 7.4% to JP¥3,650. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥3,026, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 15% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 5.1%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 7.0% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 13% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 18
Now 20% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 5.6% to JP¥3,470. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,882, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 15% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 5.1%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 7.0% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 13% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 15
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from JP¥691.6b to JP¥727.7b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥188 to JP¥208 per share. Net income forecast to grow 9.6% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥3,500 to JP¥3,625. Share price fell 7.9% to JP¥3,375 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 07
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥50.62 (vs JP¥13.98 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥50.62 (up from JP¥13.98 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥181.1b (up 25% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥3.96b (up 252% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 2.2% (up from 0.8% in 1Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.4% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 17% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 26
Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 11% to JP¥3,190. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,617, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 14% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 16%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.6% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 15% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Mar 24
NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 06, 2026 NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results at 9:00 AM, Tokyo Standard Time on Apr 06, 2026 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 11
Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 19% to JP¥3,165. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,591, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 14% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 16%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.6% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 15% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • Mar 09
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by cash flows. Cash payout ratio: 154% Dividend yield: 1.7% This is considered a minor risk. Dividends are ultimately paid out of the company's available cash reserves. Companies that pay out too much of their cash flow are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If cash flow growth slows or cash flows fall, then there may not be enough cash reserves to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to take on debt to maintain the dividend. This risk is mitigated by the fact the dividend is covered by earnings, however, cash flows are generally more important. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (9.5% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (154% cash payout ratio). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.4% average weekly change). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 06
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 19% After last week's 19% share price decline to JP¥3,130, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 14% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥2,624 per share. Announcement • Feb 21
NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. Approves Board Appointments NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. held the 27th Annual General Meeting of Shareholders and the meeting of the Board of Directors on February 20, 2026. The company resolved to approve the following appointments: Seiji Hirota was appointed as Representative Director, Chairman and President; Masashi Nomura was appointed as Director and Executive Officer; Tadamitsu Matsui and Isao Endo were appointed as Directors (Outside); Tetsuya Isogai was appointed as Full-Time Audit and Supervisory Board Member; Manabu Haruma, Ikuo Murata, and Miki Okado were appointed as Outside Audit and Supervisory Board Members; Hirofumi Nishiwaki and Shigekazu Ando were appointed as Senior Managing Executive Officers; Kimiyoshi Miyazaki, Atsushi Yamasaki, and Susumu Hara were appointed as Managing Executive Officers. Price Target Changed • Jan 17
Price target increased by 20% to JP¥3,225 Up from JP¥2,678, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 12% below last closing price of JP¥3,675. Stock is up 162% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥197 for next year compared to JP¥162 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 12
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 21% After last week's 21% share price gain to JP¥3,370, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 41% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥3,245 per share. Price Target Changed • Jan 07
Price target increased by 9.6% to JP¥2,678 Up from JP¥2,442, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 18% below last closing price of JP¥3,280. Stock is up 132% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥193 for next year compared to JP¥162 last year. New Risk • Jan 06
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.4% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • Jan 06
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥162 (up from JP¥99.90 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥652.1b (up 18% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥12.8b (up 60% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 2.0% (up from 1.4% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 7.9%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.9% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 16% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 8% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Nov 26
NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Jan 05, 2026 NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Jan 05, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Nov 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥34.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 November 2025. Payment date: 25 February 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 29% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 1.3%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (1.5%). Price Target Changed • Nov 15
Price target increased by 17% to JP¥2,442 Up from JP¥2,082, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 8.6% below last closing price of JP¥2,672. Stock is up 78% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥147 for next year compared to JP¥99.90 last year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 14
Now 23% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 30% to JP¥2,655. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,161, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 15% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 22%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.4% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 15% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 23
Now 20% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 38% to JP¥2,564. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,133, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 15% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 22%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.4% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 15% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 15
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from JP¥123 to JP¥136. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥615.5b. Net income forecast to grow 39% next year vs 14% growth forecast for Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥2,082 to JP¥2,142. Share price rose 2.3% to JP¥2,690 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Oct 07
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥46.72 (up from JP¥19.09 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥167.7b (up 23% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥3.65b (up 138% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 2.2% (up from 1.1% in 3Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 13%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 26%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.6% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 22% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 3% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 07
Now 26% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 42% to JP¥2,608. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,063, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 14% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 24%. Announcement • Aug 27
NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 06, 2025 NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Oct 06, 2025 Price Target Changed • Jul 19
Price target increased by 8.7% to JP¥2,008 Up from JP¥1,848, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 7.7% above last closing price of JP¥1,864. Stock is down 8.1% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥132 for next year compared to JP¥99.90 last year. Price Target Changed • Jul 10
Price target increased by 8.7% to JP¥2,008 Up from JP¥1,848, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 5.8% above last closing price of JP¥1,898. Stock is down 12% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥128 for next year compared to JP¥99.90 last year. Declared Dividend • Jul 09
Dividend of JP¥34.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥34.00. Ex-date: 27th November 2025 Payment date: 25th February 2026 Dividend yield will be 1.8%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (39% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 42% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 72% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Jul 08
NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. revises Consolidated and Non-Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending November 30, 2025 NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. provided consolidated and non-consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending November 30, 2025. For the year, the company revises on consolidated basis net sales of JPY 615,000 million, Operating profit o JPY 17,000 million, profit attributable to owners of parent of JPY 10,800 million, and basic earnings per share o JPY 134.42 compared to net sales of JPY 580,000 million, Operating profit o JPY 15,000 million, profit attributable to owners of parent of JPY 9,500 million, and basic earnings per share o JPY 118.17 previous guidance.
For the year, the company revises on non-consolidated basis net sales of JPY 570,000 million, profit o JPY 10,600 million, and basic earnings per share o JPY 131.94 compared to net sales of JPY 531,000 million, profit o JPY 9,000 million, and basic earnings per share o JPY 111.95 previous guidance. Announcement • May 27
NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Jul 07, 2025 NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Jul 07, 2025 New Risk • May 01
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (2.6% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.3% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (1.3% net profit margin). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 14
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17% After last week's 17% share price gain to JP¥1,580, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 23% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,636 per share. Reported Earnings • Apr 08
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥13.98 (vs JP¥18.23 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥13.98 (down from JP¥18.23 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥144.9b (up 21% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥1.13b (down 23% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 0.8% (down from 1.2% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.0% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 14% per year and the company’s share price has also fallen by 14% per year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 27
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 14% to JP¥1,625. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,054, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 19% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 7.3%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 6.4% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 16% per annum over the same time period. Board Change • Mar 01
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 3 experienced directors. 4 highly experienced directors. Executive Officer & Director Masashi Nomura was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Insufficient board refreshment. Announcement • Feb 26
NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 07, 2025 NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Apr 07, 2025 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 27
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 1.9% to JP¥1,430. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,813, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 19% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 7.3%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 6.3% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 16% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 25
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 29% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from JP¥171 to JP¥122 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥583.0b. Net income forecast to grow 22% next year vs 14% growth forecast for Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Consensus price target down from JP¥2,780 to JP¥2,563. Share price rose 3.6% to JP¥1,451 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 14
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥601.4b to JP¥585.4b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥197 per share to JP¥176 per share. Net income forecast to grow 76% next year vs 14% growth forecast for Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Consensus price target down from JP¥3,123 to JP¥2,780. Share price was steady at JP¥1,482 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Jan 10
Price target decreased by 11% to JP¥2,780 Down from JP¥3,123, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 88% above last closing price of JP¥1,481. Stock is down 37% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥176 for next year compared to JP¥99.90 last year. Reported Earnings • Jan 07
Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥99.90 (down from JP¥145 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥552.8b (up 19% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥8.01b (down 31% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 1.4% (down from 2.5% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 24%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.8% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 7% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 20% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Announcement • Nov 26
NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Jan 06, 2025 NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Jan 06, 2025 Upcoming Dividend • Nov 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥33.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 November 2024. Payment date: 26 February 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 31% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.2%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.4%). Major Estimate Revision • Oct 14
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 24% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥548.0b to JP¥537.7b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥174 per share to JP¥132 per share. Net income forecast to grow 75% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Consensus price target down from JP¥3,290 to JP¥3,123. Share price fell 15% to JP¥1,513 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Oct 08
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥19.09 (vs JP¥57.12 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥19.09 (down from JP¥57.12 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥136.4b (up 14% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥1.53b (down 66% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.1% (down from 3.8% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.9% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has remained flat but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Aug 27
Price target increased by 12% to JP¥3,290 Up from JP¥2,950, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 58% above last closing price of JP¥2,076. Stock is down 36% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥174 for next year compared to JP¥145 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 19% After last week's 19% share price decline to JP¥1,640, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 21% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,779 per share. Announcement • Jul 27
NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 07, 2024 NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Oct 07, 2024 Reported Earnings • Jul 03
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥49.19 (vs JP¥55.71 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥49.19 (down from JP¥55.71 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥145.5b (up 30% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥3.94b (down 11% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 2.7% (down from 4.0% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.2% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 7% per year. Announcement • May 29
NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Jul 01, 2024 NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Jul 01, 2024 Reported Earnings • Apr 02
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥18.23 (vs JP¥15.60 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥18.23 (up from JP¥15.60 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥119.5b (up 1.3% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥1.46b (up 18% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.2% (up from 1.1% in 1Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.6% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 13% per year and the company’s share price has also increased by 13% per year. Announcement • Feb 29
NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 01, 2024 NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Apr 01, 2024 Reported Earnings • Jan 10
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥145 (down from JP¥176 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥463.5b (up 11% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥11.6b (down 17% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 2.5% (down from 3.3% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 9.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.4% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 21% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 16% per year. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥32.00 per share at 1.3% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 November 2023. Payment date: 26 February 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 14% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 1.3%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (1.5%). Announcement • Nov 01
NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Jan 09, 2024 NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Jan 09, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • Oct 10
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 18% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥501.3b to JP¥461.0b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥196 per share to JP¥160 per share. Net income forecast to grow 8.3% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Consensus price target down from JP¥4,567 to JP¥3,367. Share price fell 4.2% to JP¥1,962 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Oct 05
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥57.12 (vs JP¥51.75 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥57.12 (up from JP¥51.75 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥119.4b (up 12% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥4.56b (up 11% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 3.8% (in line with 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 14% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.6% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 31% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 15% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Sep 13
Nextage Co. Announces Executive Changes Nextage Co. announced that Koji Hamawaki, 53, has resigned as president. Hamawaki, who became Nextage president in 2022, originally worked for industry peer Bigmotor Co., embroiled in a series of scandals including fraudulent auto insurance claims. Nextage Chairman and founder Seiji Hirota, 50, will serve as president. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 08
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 25% After last week's 25% share price decline to JP¥2,501, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 137% over the past three years.