NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. Recorded A 8.0% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that NEXTAGE Co., Ltd. (TSE:3186) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.1% to JP¥2,697 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥119b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at JP¥145 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for NEXTAGE

After the latest results, the six analysts covering NEXTAGE are now predicting revenues of JP¥536.4b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a solid 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 25% to JP¥184. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥536.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥183 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥3,000. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NEXTAGE at JP¥4,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,200. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 21% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 21% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that NEXTAGE is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NEXTAGE going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for NEXTAGE that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.