Results: Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

A week ago, Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:4578) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of JP¥583b, some 5.0% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at JP¥159, 35% ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Otsuka Holdings' eleven analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥2.42t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to drop 18% to JP¥542 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥2.41t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥542 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for Otsuka Holdings

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥9,050, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Otsuka Holdings at JP¥10,700 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥7,500. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Otsuka Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Otsuka Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Otsuka Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Otsuka Holdings (including 1 which is a bit unpleasant) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.