Inpex Corporation Just Beat EPS By 37%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in Inpex Corporation (TSE:1605) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.3% to close at JP¥1,890 following the release of its first-quarter results. Revenues were JP¥537b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at JP¥105, an impressive 37% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about Inpex. View them for free.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from ten analysts covering Inpex is for revenues of JP¥1.93t in 2025. This implies an uncomfortable 13% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 31% to JP¥250 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.98t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥246 in 2025. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

See our latest analysis for Inpex

The average price target was steady at JP¥2,213even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Inpex analyst has a price target of JP¥2,780 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,780. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 17% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.6% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 0.7% annually for the foreseeable future. So it's pretty clear that Inpex's revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Unfortunately they also cut their revenue estimates for next year. Forecasts imply the business' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. That said, earnings per share are more important for creating value for shareholders. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Inpex going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Inpex has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.