Toyota Motor Corporation Just Beat EPS By 9.1%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Toyota Motor Corporation (TSE:7203) just released its full-year report and things are looking bullish. The company beat expectations with revenues of JP¥45t arriving 2.3% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were JP¥366, 9.1% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Toyota Motor

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Toyota Motor from 19 analysts is for revenues of JP¥47t in 2025. If met, it would imply a credible 4.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decline 10% to JP¥329 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥47t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥326 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥3,629, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Toyota Motor at JP¥4,300 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,700. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Toyota Motor shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Toyota Motor's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 8.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Toyota Motor is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Toyota Motor analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Toyota Motor (2 don't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com