Toyota Motor Corporation

TSE:7203 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥35.4t

Toyota Motor Valuation

Is 7203 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 7203 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 7203 (¥2680.5) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥2676.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 7203 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 7203?

Key metric: As 7203 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 7203. This is calculated by dividing 7203's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 7203's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.3x
EarningsJP¥4.26t
Market CapJP¥35.43t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 7203's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 7203 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.5x
7267 Honda Motor
6.3x5.8%JP¥6.3t
7269 Suzuki Motor
9.1x0.5%JP¥3.2t
7270 Subaru
4.5x-3.3%JP¥1.8t
7201 Nissan Motor
10.1x22.6%JP¥1.5t
7203 Toyota Motor
8.3x-0.3%JP¥35.4t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 7203 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the peer average (7.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 7203's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Auto Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
7203 8.3xIndustry Avg. 17.8xNo. of Companies9PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 7203 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the Asian Auto industry average (17.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 7203's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

7203 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.3x
Fair PE Ratio10.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 7203 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 7203 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,680.50
JP¥3,250.88
+21.3%
10.8%JP¥3,800.00JP¥2,600.00n/a17
Nov ’25JP¥2,615.50
JP¥3,277.25
+25.3%
11.2%JP¥3,800.00JP¥2,600.00n/a17
Oct ’25JP¥2,596.00
JP¥3,371.14
+29.9%
11.3%JP¥3,800.00JP¥2,600.00n/a16
Sep ’25JP¥2,759.50
JP¥3,479.22
+26.1%
10.9%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,600.00n/a15
Aug ’25JP¥2,699.00
JP¥3,686.67
+36.6%
8.3%JP¥4,100.00JP¥3,000.00n/a15
Jul ’25JP¥3,284.00
JP¥3,644.59
+11.0%
12.6%JP¥4,300.00JP¥2,700.00n/a17
Jun ’25JP¥3,401.00
JP¥3,679.88
+8.2%
12.0%JP¥4,300.00JP¥2,700.00n/a17
May ’25JP¥3,605.00
JP¥3,569.89
-1.0%
15.6%JP¥4,400.00JP¥2,300.00n/a18
Apr ’25JP¥3,639.00
JP¥3,493.78
-4.0%
16.1%JP¥4,400.00JP¥2,300.00n/a18
Mar ’25JP¥3,680.00
JP¥3,304.89
-10.2%
14.9%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,300.00n/a18
Feb ’25JP¥2,945.00
JP¥3,038.22
+3.2%
11.4%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,300.00n/a18
Jan ’25JP¥2,590.50
JP¥3,014.33
+16.4%
11.8%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,300.00n/a18
Dec ’24JP¥2,833.00
JP¥2,969.89
+4.8%
11.8%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,300.00n/a18
Nov ’24JP¥2,712.00
JP¥2,897.67
+6.8%
11.6%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,200.00JP¥2,615.5018
Oct ’24JP¥2,677.50
JP¥2,810.00
+4.9%
12.1%JP¥3,350.00JP¥2,200.00JP¥2,596.0018
Sep ’24JP¥2,519.50
JP¥2,685.00
+6.6%
13.6%JP¥3,350.00JP¥2,050.00JP¥2,759.5018
Aug ’24JP¥2,445.50
JP¥2,593.33
+6.0%
14.5%JP¥3,350.00JP¥1,700.00JP¥2,699.0018
Jul ’24JP¥2,308.50
JP¥2,423.53
+5.0%
14.9%JP¥3,100.00JP¥1,700.00JP¥3,284.0017
Jun ’24JP¥1,943.00
JP¥2,229.41
+14.7%
12.0%JP¥2,650.00JP¥1,600.00JP¥3,401.0017
May ’24JP¥1,874.00
JP¥2,150.00
+14.7%
10.4%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,600.00JP¥3,605.0017
Apr ’24JP¥1,880.00
JP¥2,164.71
+15.1%
10.0%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,600.00JP¥3,639.0017
Mar ’24JP¥1,863.50
JP¥2,148.75
+15.3%
10.4%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,600.00JP¥3,680.0016
Feb ’24JP¥1,903.00
JP¥2,161.25
+13.6%
10.0%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,700.00JP¥2,945.0016
Jan ’24JP¥1,812.50
JP¥2,211.25
+22.0%
9.5%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,700.00JP¥2,590.5016
Dec ’23JP¥1,998.50
JP¥2,272.22
+13.7%
9.4%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,700.00JP¥2,833.0018
Nov ’23JP¥2,019.50
JP¥2,323.68
+15.1%
9.2%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,800.00JP¥2,712.0019

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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