Poste Italiane S.p.A. Just Recorded A 5.7% Revenue Beat: Here's What Analysts Think

Poste Italiane S.p.A. (BIT:PST) just released its latest full-year results and things are looking bullish. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 5.7% to hit €13b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at €1.48, some 4.2% above whatthe analysts had expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Poste Italiane after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Poste Italiane

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 13 analysts covering Poste Italiane, is for revenues of €12.2b in 2024. This implies a discernible 3.6% reduction in Poste Italiane's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be €1.48, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €12.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.49 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €13.07, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Poste Italiane at €14.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €11.10. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Poste Italiane is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would also point out that the forecast 3.6% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 7.4% annually over the past five years By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Poste Italiane to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €13.07, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Poste Italiane going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Poste Italiane (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.