Allianz (XTRA:ALV) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of ALV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ALV (€168.74) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (€582.04)

ALV fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	5/6

ALV Stock Overview

Allianz SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides property-casualty insurance, life/health insurance, and asset management products and services worldwide.

Rewards

Trading at 71% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 16.92% per year

Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 31.8%

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 6.4% is not well covered

Profit margins (3.8%) are lower than last year (7.3%)

Allianz Competitors

Talanx

XTRA:TLX

€9.3b

Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft in München

XTRA:MUV2

€34.7b

NÜRNBERGER Beteiligungs-AG

XTRA:NBG6

€858.2m

Hannover Rück

XTRA:HNR1

€18.7b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Allianz
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€168.74
52 Week High	€232.50
52 Week Low	€164.46
Beta	1.19
1 Month Change	-2.62%
3 Month Change	-6.88%
1 Year Change	-12.27%
3 Year Change	-20.35%
5 Year Change	-11.17%
Change since IPO	60.34%

Shareholder Returns

	ALV	DE Insurance	DE Market
7D	-3.1%	-3.5%	-4.9%
1Y	-12.3%	-5.7%	-29.0%

Return vs Industry: ALV underperformed the German Insurance industry which returned -5.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ALV exceeded the German Market which returned -29% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ALV's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ALV volatility
ALV Average Weekly Movement	3.2%
Insurance Industry Average Movement	3.5%
Market Average Movement	5.6%
10% most volatile stocks in DE Market	10.0%
10% least volatile stocks in DE Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: ALV is less volatile than 75% of German stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 3% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ALV's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1890	155,411	Oliver Bate	https://www.allianz.com

Allianz SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides property-casualty insurance, life/health insurance, and asset management products and services worldwide. The company’s Property-Casualty segment offers various insurance products, including motor liability and own damage, accident, general liability, fire and property, legal expense, credit, and travel to private and corporate customers. Its Life/Health segment provides a range of life and health insurance products on an individual and a group basis, such as annuities, endowment and term insurance, and unit-linked and investment-oriented products, as well as private and supplemental health, and long-term care insurance products.

Allianz Fundamentals Summary

How do Allianz's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ALV fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€68.01b
Earnings (TTM)	€4.04b
Revenue (TTM)	€107.24b

16.9x

P/E Ratio

0.6x

P/S Ratio

Is ALV overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ALV income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€107.24b
Cost of Revenue	€87.01b
Gross Profit	€20.23b
Other Expenses	€16.20b
Earnings	€4.04b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Nov 10, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	10.01
Gross Margin	18.87%
Net Profit Margin	3.76%
Debt/Equity Ratio	63.8%

How did ALV perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

6.4%

Current Dividend Yield

112%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is ALV undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALV?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for ALV. This is calculated by dividing ALV's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is ALV's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€68.01b

ALV key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	27x
PEG Ratio	1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALV's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

ALV PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALV vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	14.9x
TLX Talanx	9.1x	9.6%	€9.3b
MUV2 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft in München	13.3x	10.3%	€34.7b
NBG6 NÜRNBERGER Beteiligungs-AG	21.6x	20.5%	€858.2m
HNR1 Hannover Rück	15.4x	12.6%	€18.7b
ALV Allianz	16.9x	16.9%	€68.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the peer average (14.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALV's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Insurance Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the European Insurance industry average (10.6x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALV's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALV PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	16.9x
Fair PE Ratio	16.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALV (€168.74) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€582.04)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALV is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Allianz forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 11 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

16.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ALV's forecast earnings growth (16.9% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.01%).

Earnings vs Market: ALV's earnings (16.9% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the German market (9.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ALV's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ALV's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the German market (3.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ALV's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ALV's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.7%).

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Past Performance

How has Allianz performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-2.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ALV has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: ALV's current net profit margins (3.8%) are lower than last year (7.3%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ALV's earnings have declined by 2.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ALV's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: ALV had negative earnings growth (-53.5%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Insurance industry average (-15.3%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: ALV's Return on Equity (7.5%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Allianz's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ALV's short term assets (€138.1B) exceed its short term liabilities (€116.7B).

Long Term Liabilities: ALV's short term assets (€138.1B) do not cover its long term liabilities (€873.0B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ALV's net debt to equity ratio (13.2%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: ALV's debt to equity ratio has increased from 51.9% to 63.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ALV's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (18.7%).

Interest Coverage: ALV's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.4x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Allianz current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

6.40%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: ALV's dividend (6.4%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the German market (1.66%).

High Dividend: ALV's dividend (6.4%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the German market (5.36%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: ALV's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: ALV's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (111.5%), ALV's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: At its current cash payout ratio (76.2%), ALV's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Oliver Bate (57 yo)

14.67yrs

Tenure

€7,865,000

Compensation

Mr. Oliver Bate has been Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Management Board at Allianz Group and Allianz SE since May 7, 2015. Mr. Bäte is a Member of Supervisory Board at Allianz Deutschland AG....

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Oliver's total compensation ($USD7.65M) is above average for companies of similar size in the German market ($USD5.84M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Oliver's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ALV's management team is considered experienced (2.5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: ALV's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 10.2 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 27.69% of the company

Ownership	Name	Shares	Current Value	Change %	Portfolio %
6.8%	BlackRock, Inc.	27,415,043	€4.6b	-4.17%	0.11%
3.83%	The Vanguard Group, Inc.	15,430,775	€2.6b	0.93%	0.06%
3.01%	Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management	12,117,221	€2.0b	-1.34%	0.86%
2.08%	Norges Bank Investment Management	8,381,145	€1.4b	0%	0.19%
1.55%	Amundi Asset Management	6,230,590	€1.1b	5.4%	0.32%
1.02%	Harris Associates L.P.	4,120,105	€695.2m	-0.02%	0.88%
0.98%	Deka Investment GmbH	3,943,395	€665.4m	0.6%	0.92%
0.83%	Allianz Asset Management AG	3,347,146	€564.8m	0%	0.49%
0.77%	J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Inc.	3,117,174	€526.0m	-3.17%	0.1%
0.72%	Union Asset Management Holding AG	2,916,239	€492.1m	0.17%	0.56%
0.68%	FMR LLC	2,739,355	€462.2m	-10.6%	0.04%
0.59%	UBS Asset Management	2,394,167	€404.0m	-2.18%	0.08%
0.55%	Fidelity International Ltd	2,233,572	€376.9m	-0.45%	0.19%
0.55%	Geode Capital Management, LLC	2,216,271	€374.0m	0.44%	0.05%
0.49%	Harding Loevner LP	1,983,338	€334.7m	-3.83%	0.97%
0.41%	Universal-Investment-Gesellschaft Mit BeschrÄNkter Haftung	1,670,045	€281.8m	3.31%	2.32%
0.4%	Nordea Investment Management AB	1,594,488	€269.1m	-0.75%	0.23%
0.39%	State Street Global Advisors, Inc.	1,562,741	€263.7m	0.26%	0.01%
0.36%	Dimensional Fund Advisors LP	1,463,345	€246.9m	0.29%	0.06%
0.31%	HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited	1,230,904	€207.7m	-0.43%	0.17%
0.29%	Natixis Investment Managers International	1,185,717	€200.1m	-10.85%	0.79%
0.29%	Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.	1,184,103	€199.8m	2.01%	0.05%
0.28%	Assenagon Asset Management S.A.	1,139,995	€192.4m	0%	0.64%
0.25%	BNPP Asset Management Holding	1,006,910	€169.9m	-1.69%	0.34%
0.25%	Artisan Partners Limited Partnership	1,001,566	€169.0m	-7.88%	0.17%

Ticker	Exchange	Primary Security	Security Type	Country	Currency	Listed on
ALIZ.F	OTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	US	USD	Jan 1992
0M6S	LSE (London Stock Exchange)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	GB	EUR	Jan 1992
ALV	DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	DE	EUR	Jan 1992
ALV	SWX (SIX Swiss Exchange)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	CH	EUR	Jan 1992
ALV	BIT (Borsa Italiana)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	IT	EUR	Jan 1992
ALV	XTRA (XETRA Trading Platform)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	DE	EUR	Jan 1992
ALVD	BATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')	Yes	Ordinary Shares	GB	EUR	Jan 1992
ALV N	BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	MX	MXN	Jan 1992
ALV	WBAG (Wiener Boerse AG)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	AT	EUR	Jan 1992
ALLIANZ	BUSE (Budapest Stock Exchange)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	HU	HUF	Jan 1992
ALV	BUL (Bulgaria Stock Exchange)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	BG	EUR	Jan 1992
ALVE	BST (Boerse-Stuttgart)		UNSPON ADS EACH REP 1/10 ORD SHARES	DE	EUR	Jan 2020
ALIZ.Y	OTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)		UNSPON ADS EACH REP 1/10 ORD SHARES	US	USD	Jan 2020
ALVE	DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)		UNSPON ADS EACH REP 1/10 ORD SHARES	DE	EUR	Jan 2020

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/09/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/09/23 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31