IIFL Finance Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Investors in IIFL Finance Limited (NSE:IIFL) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.0% to close at ₹482 following the release of its full-year results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of ₹66b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 9.5% to hit ₹45.71 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for IIFL Finance

After the latest results, the six analysts covering IIFL Finance are now predicting revenues of ₹74.9b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a notable 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 32% to ₹54.90. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹75.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹55.92 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of ₹586, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values IIFL Finance at ₹820 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹330. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that IIFL Finance's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 13% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 21% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 11% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like IIFL Finance is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple IIFL Finance analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that IIFL Finance is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com